Diplomacy between Saudi Arabia, Iran could isolate 'Israel'
4 Min Read
With China in the picture and new diplomatic rapprochements, the US and "Israel" question their fate.
-
In this photo released by Nournews, the Secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council, Ali Shamkhani, right, China's most senior diplomat Wang Yi, center, and Saudi Arabia's National Security Advisor Musaad bin Mohammed al-Aiban look on during an agreement signing ceremony between Iran and Saudi Arabia to reestablish diplomatic relations and reopen embassies after seven years of tensions between the Mideast rivals, in Beijing, China, March 10, 2023.
A report published on Monday by The Hill questions that if the Israeli defense establishment, the prime minister, and the inner security cabinet decide that Iran’s uranium enrichment is set at 84 percent, close to what the West fear could make a nuclear weapon, and its progress in weaponizing a warhead is supposedly making a nuclear breakout imminent, what does the US intend to do in a situation like that?
Read next: 'Big question mark' around West's commitment to revive JCPOA: Ulyanov
The report gives us a closer look at the Israeli position and how the rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran could make "Israel" feel isolated, especially with its eye on developing diplomatic relations with Riyadh. That said, it is safe to say that China brokering the deal decreases the US' influence. Since the US is "Israel's" ally, that means hopes of weakening Iran are much weaker, according to The Hill.
Will the US cross red lines for 'Israel'?
At this point, the US might not support an Israeli decision to strike Iran, which could definitely cause the Biden administration a new headache. But, based on history, US red lines could easily be crossed, according to The Hill. That said, the pressure on "Israel" to abstain from striking Iran will be huge.
Israeli normalization partners, such as Bahrain, may follow Saudi Arabia’s lead and restore diplomatic ties with Iran. Bahrain may act on this, according to The Hill, in order to limit its domestic issues, as it continues to repress its Shia majority population.
US in the shadows, where is 'Israel'?
On the border with Palestine, the occupation is seen by enemies as a vulnerable state and with its US ally considered "diminished" in the Middle East, the entity can't do a lot anymore, according to The Hill. That itself could trigger a wave of miscalculations and violence, and a weak "Israel" is not beneficial for the United States or the West.
The report suggests that China will play a role in pressuring "Israel" to de-escalate and not destabilize the region now that oil is being shipped from Saudi Arabia and Iran, which is considered the lifeblood of their economy.
Mark Dubowitz of The Foundation for Defense of Democracies said, “This is a brilliant stroke by China and Iran to undercut Saudi-American and Saudi-Israeli normalization. It helps bring Tehran in from the cold and undermines American and Israeli efforts to build a regional coalition to confront Iran as it is on the cusp of developing nuclear weapons.”
The report discusses further that if "Israel" were to commit any provocative acts against Iran and is blamed for the instability that follows, could there be retaliation in the Gulf region? That said, any such retaliation would threaten the sustainability of the normalization agreements.
What are the short-term interests?
The new rapprochement between Saudi Arabia and Iran concerns short-term shared interests. "Israel" is known as the only player to threaten Iran, and Saudi Arabia wants the agreement to be fruitful, especially hoping to stop future attacks against its homeland.
According to The Hill, at this point, no matter how much Iran advances in its nuclear program, the Europeans are currently more concerned with Ukraine. In an effort to rejoin a nuclear agreement, states would consider China's diplomatic window a new chance. There would be no hesitation to possibly sanction "Israel," especially as a new diplomatic seed grows in the Middle East, according to The Hill.
In this case, it adds, Iran will be portrayed as a victim if targeted by "Israel," which would further isolate the zionist entity.
There are no long-term plans for the region, but there is definitely a short-term ceasefire that will cool down the region, according to The Hill.
