Mearsheimer: Hardly any chance for Ukraine counteroffensive success
4 Min Read
In an interview with Pushback, John Mearsheimer American realpolitik academic likens the Ukrainian counteroffensive to suicide such that it has a slim chance of winning at best.
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Photo of destroyed/Disabled Ukrainian military equipment on the Zaporozhye front published by the Russian military, July 2023 (Telegram: WarGonzo)
“It seems to me that anybody who knows anything about military tactics and strategy had to understand that there was hardly any chance that the Ukrainian counteroffensive would succeed,” American political scientist John Mearsheimer said in an interview transcribed by The Grayzone.
Mearsheimer expressed his surprise at the West's encouragement for the Ukrainians' counteroffensive, which he compared to a suicide attack that would lead to counterproductive results.
It made more sense for the Ukrainians to remain on the defensive at least for the time being, he added. Inferring the West's line of reasoning, Mearsheimer argued that the West is very afraid of running out of time, so if the Ukrainians do not achieve some remarkable gains on the battlefield in 2023, popular support for the war will dry up which would then devolve into ascertained defeat. He added that the West pressed hard for this attack, knowing that the chances for its success were at best slim.
Furthermore, Mearsheimer predicted that the war would stretch out for a long time. Even if a peace agreement was reached soon, he reckons that it would be shortlived.
Mearsheimer stressed that he finds it difficult to imagine the United States, or any Western European country, agreeing to include Ukraine in NATO since bringing Ukraine into NATO in the midst of a war obliges NATO to defend Ukraine by military force, which the West does not want.
The long-anticipated Ukrainian counteroffensive was launched on June 4, on wide axes south of Donetsk, Zaporozhye, and Artyomovsk, with the main attack of the Ukrainian Armed Forces focused on the Zaporozhye sector south towards Crimea.
Read more: Putin says Ukrainian counteroffensive failed, Ukraine lost 26k troops
Last week, Bild newspaper reported, citing a confidential German intelligence assessment, that Ukraine's counter-offensive is facing challenges due to poor execution of tactics.
The leaked German documents assess that the Ukranian forces are only partially implementing the training directives received from their Western allies.
According to the report, Kiev's troops are spreading themselves too thin along the 1,000-kilometer front line and launching attacks with units composed of very few soldiers.
The leaked document highlights that Ukrainian soldiers trained by Western countries have shown significant improvement, but their efforts are hindered by commanders who lack the same level of training and experience.
The Ukrainian military reportedly favors promoting soldiers with combat experience over those who have received NATO-standard instruction, leading to "considerable deficiencies in leadership" and, consequently, "wrong and dangerous decisions."
The German assessment criticizes the practice of attacking in small units consisting of only 10 to 30 soldiers, which it deems insufficient to break through Russian lines effectively. This approach not only risks friendly fire but also fails to capitalize on the collective strength of Western-trained troops.
The leaked assessment criticizes the Ukrainian army for not fully integrating their Western training into the structure of their officer corps.
Equivocally on the other side of the sponsor-proxy relation, the commander of Ukraine's army, General Valery Zaluzhny, has expressed frustration with Western pressure to attack at a faster pace.
Moreover, some Ukrainian soldiers reportedly feel pressured to make sacrifices without adequate weaponry to protect them, such as F-16 jets and long-range ATACMS missiles.
Read next: US losing hegemon status as war in Ukraine unfolds
