Military conflict over Taiwan not inevitable, says CIA director

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
27 Feb 2023 00:33

The director of the CIA says a military conflict between China and the United States is not inevitable.

Central Intelligence Agency Director William Burns speaks at the Central Intelligence Agency headquarters in Langley, Va., July 8, 2022 (AP Photo)

A military conflict over Taiwan is not inevitable, CIA Director William Burns said Sunday, although he claimed that Chinese President Xi Jinping was serious about taking it under full control.

"I think we need to take very seriously Xi's ambitions with regard to ultimately controlling Taiwan. That doesn't, however, in our view, mean that a military conflict is inevitable," he told CBS's Face the Nation show.

Burns claimed that President Xi directed the armed forces to be ready to "invade" what China sees as its integral territory by 2027 but that did not necessarily mean that he had made the final decision yet.

"All I would say is that I think the risks of, you know, a potential use of force probably grow the further into this decade you get and beyond it, into the following decade as well. So that's something, obviously, that we watch very, very carefully," Burns told Face the Nation.

The US claimed earlier in the month that a rising "threat" from China vis-à-vis Taiwan has led it to plan a four-fold increase in the number of troops on the island, the Wall Street Journal reported Thursday.

The report, which cited US officials, explained that currently, 30 US troops are stationed in Taiwan. However, it is planned that an additional 100 to 200 soldiers are likely to arrive over the coming months.

The newly deployed troops will include special operations forces and US Marines that will be tasked to expand a pre-existing training program that the Pentagon wanted to keep out of the public eye.

Meanwhile, the Pentagon is reportedly holding a separate training program for a group of Taiwanese military personnel at Camp Grayling in northern Michigan. In that program, which is run by the Michigan National Guard, Taiwanese soldiers have participated in annual exercises with a number of other nations.

Moreover, a four-star US Air Force general warned in late January of a possible conflict with China, which he said could take place as early as 2025, citing Taiwan as the most likely reason for the conflict and urging his commanders to strive for maximum operation battle readiness among their suits by the end of this year.

In an internal memo that initially emerged on social media on Friday before being later confirmed as genuine by the Pentagon, the head of the Air Mobility Command, General Mike Minihan, said the main goal should be deterring "and, if required, defeating" China. He said he hoped he was "wrong. My gut tells me we will fight in 2025."

According to Minihan, Taiwan's 2024 presidential elections could provide Chinese President Xi Jinping with a reason to move against Taiwan as the United States is distracted by its own presidential race.

China held major military exercises in August, which were claimed by the West to have been a trial run for China to conduct an offensive against Taiwan after then-US House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited the island despite warnings from Beijing.

The United States official switched its recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979, though it uses Taiwan as a market for its arms under the pretext of providing the island with the tools to "defend" itself.

US-Russia relations 'deeply adversarial'

Burns, furthermore, described as "deeply adversarial" the relationship between the United States and Russia, noting that it was important to keep lines of communication open.

"I think even in the most deeply adversarial relationships, and that's certainly what our relationship with Russia is today, it's important to have those lines open," he added.

Additionally, he revealed that President Joe Biden shared his views, although he conceded that there was "not a great deal" of contact with Russia at the moment.

Pentagon spokesman Pat Ryder said on Friday that it was "absolutely important" to keep lines of communication open with Russia and China in spite of all the tensions.

He argued it was the responsibility of all nations, particularly those maintaining vast military arsenals, to reduce the potential for miscalculation.

This comes after US Secretary of State Antony Blinken claimed on Friday that the US is prepared to join in diplomatic attempts to resolve the crisis in Ukraine, but what "matters is the nature of peace."

"The United States has long made it clear even before this war that we’re prepared to engage in any meaningful diplomatic effort to stop Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. But history teaches us that it’s the nature of the peace that matters," Blinken told the United Nations Security Council (UNSC).

According to the top US diplomat, any settlement that legitimizes what he called Russia's "aggression" will weaken the UN Charter.