Narendra Modi's ruling Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) has fallen short of a parliamentary majority, delivering an unforeseen setback to the prime minister. This outcome has compelled him to engage in negotiations with coalition partners to secure his return to power.

As all votes were tallied early on Wednesday morning, it became evident that the anticipated landslide victory for the BJP, as forecasted in polls, did not materialize. Instead, there was notable resistance against the prime minister's strongman leadership and his Hindu nationalist agenda across various regions of the country.

The party suffered a loss of 62 seats, reducing its total to 240, falling short of the 272 needed for a parliamentary majority.

This marks the first instance since Modi's election in 2014 that the BJP has failed to secure a clear majority independently. However, in conjunction with its political allies, collectively referred to as the National Democratic Alliance (NDA), it has secured approximately 292 seats. This is sufficient to establish a majority government and facilitate Modi's return to office for a third term, enabling governance for the next five years.

In contrast, the opposition coalition, known as INDIA, exceeded initial forecasts by collectively securing over 230 seats. Comprising over 20 national and regional opposition parties, this alliance united for the first time in this election with the goal of unseating Modi.
 
Despite the close competition, Modi asserted his mandate to lead again during a victory speech. Speaking to voters at the BJP headquarters in Delhi, Modi expressed his joy, stating he was “very, very happy today.”

"I would like to bow down before the people of the country," added Modi. "Today is an emotional moment for me personally as well. This was my first election after I lost my mother."

“The blessings of the people for the third time after 10 years boosts our morale, gives new strength. Our opponents, despite being united, could not even win as many seats as BJP won,” he stressed.

INDIA showed success

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BJP officials remained adamant that they would establish the next government and dismissed any setback, highlighting that their party had secured more seats than any other.
 
The INDIA coalition demonstrated greater resilience and success than anticipated by many analysts, even amid challenges such as state agencies freezing party funds and the incarceration of opposition leaders in the lead-up to the elections. They received significant support from regional parties that surpassed the BJP, including the Samajwadi Party in Uttar Pradesh, the Trinamool Congress in West Bengal, and the Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam party in Tamil Nadu.

Analysts suggested that the election outcomes would carry substantial implications for India's political terrain. Over the past decade, Modi and his Hindu nationalist BJP have wielded significant authority, while the opposition has often been viewed as feeble and incapable of challenging the party's dominance. Modi, perceived as a popular and assertive prime minister, has faced criticism for presiding over heightened authoritarianism and a clampdown on dissent during his tenure.

The outcomes marked a significant victory for the country's struggling primary opposition party and the BJP's primary competitor, the Indian National Congress. The Congress party, which had suffered substantial defeats in the previous two elections to Modi and faced uncertainties about its future, seemed to have more than doubled its number of seats this time.

Mallikarjun Kharge, the president of the Congress party, characterized Modi's outcome as a "moral and political defeat" and announced that the opposition coalition would convene on Wednesday to deliberate on their future actions.

Modi's campaign: From infrastructure promises to suppressing Muslim votes

The BJP's campaign was largely centered around the prime minister, with their party manifesto succinctly titled "Modi's guarantee." Initially, many of Modi's speeches highlighted the BJP's extensive infrastructure initiatives, expansive welfare programs, and efforts to elevate India's global standing over the past decade. Additionally, there were promises to propel the nation into a $10 trillion economy.

However, as some perceived a sense of apprehension within the BJP camp, Modi later shifted towards more divisive religious rhetoric on the campaign trail. This included remarks that some interpreted as labeling Muslims as "infiltrators" and "those who have more children." In a series of interviews, he also asserted to have been divinely chosen for his role. The BJP faced accusations of harassing and intimidating political opponents to hinder their candidacy and of suppressing Muslim votes.

Analysts noted that the election results suggested a weakening of the "Modi wave," likely due to challenges such as high unemployment and inflation. Following the election, Modi may face a stronger and more energized opposition than ever before in the past decade.

The BJP's capacity to pursue its hardline Hindu nationalist agenda may also encounter obstacles as it depends on coalition partners, some of whom do not share the same Hindu-centric priorities. Analysts suggested that Modi might be compelled to adopt a more pragmatic or consensus-driven approach to policymaking than previously observed.

BJP's losses in Uttar Pradesh and surprises across India

One of the most startling aspects of the election results was the significant setbacks experienced by the BJP in Uttar Pradesh, often referred to as the Hindi heartland and regarded as India's most populous and politically influential state, with 80 parliamentary seats. Uttar Pradesh is considered a bellwether for the rest of the nation. Initial tallies indicated that the INDIA alliance was leading ahead of the BJP's coalition, with several prominent BJP figures losing their seats, signaling a substantial loss of support for the party in one of its key strongholds.

The election outcomes also produced other unexpected results. Despite being a traditional stronghold of left-wing politics and resistance against Hindu nationalist ideologies, Kerala saw a notable victory for the BJP, securing its first seat in the state. Additionally, in Modi's own constituency of Varanasi, his victory margin dwindled from half a million votes to 150,000.

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