NATO prepares for possible Trump comeback, looks for plan B: WaPo
5 Min Read
In a report by the Washington Post, EU officials are trying to cope with reality by trying to sell a Trump-ian America to the existing world order.
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NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg with Netherlands's Defense Minister Kajsa Ollongren during a meeting at NATO headquarters in Brussels, Thursday, Feb. 15, 2024. (AP)
The Munich Security Conference was a scene of tension between Europe and the US, as questions regarding Russia and the upcoming election come into play.
With a stalled Ukraine aid package and a looming US election round, European officials are nearing the reality of having to deal with former US president Donald Trump regarding security. Especially after Trump's speech fling with Russia, Europe is now worried, angry, and confused.
Here's what went down: Trump confirmed his willingness to "encourage" Russia to attack NATO members who are behind on their financial obligations.
"One of the presidents of a big country stood up and said, 'Well, sir, if we don't pay, and we're attacked by Russia, will you protect us?' I said, 'You didn't pay, you're delinquent?'" he said. "No, I would not protect you. In fact, I would encourage them to do whatever the hell they want. You got to pay. You got to pay your bills."
US officials tried to ease tensions during the Munich Security Conference but failed after news broke out of Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s death. European officials, on the other hand, confessed to paying very close attention to the polling taking place across the US for a predicted election result.
Read next: 'Dumb and dangerous': Biden on Trump's NATO comments
Europe, however, does not like what it sees, according to The Washington Post, which cited one person concerned if Biden’s health would possibly hold out until November.
Rep. Adam Smith (Washington), the ranking Democrat on the House Armed Services Committee, said, “I would urge you to put an enormous amount of pressure on every single House Republican who’s here to give us a vote on Ukraine aid, and to make it clear how important it is."
Exchanging China for Ukraine
Trump, to some European critics, is an existential threat to NATO as he is seen as a beneficial tool for Russia which stands to undermine the West and its security.
In a report by The Post, EU officials are trying to cope with reality by trying to sell a Trump-ian America to the existing world order but also by preparing for a plan B in case Trump's America falls.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg tried to cushion the blow by recently delivering a speech at the Trump-friendly Heritage Foundation and at a Lockheed Martin facility in Alabama to showcase how much allies invest in American weapons manufacturers.
Stoltenberg wasn't the exception. Estonian Foreign Minister Margus Tsahkna traveled to Arkansas as a way to show what the EU is doing for defense and to encourage further US engagement in NATO. His goal was “to put facts on the table,” and urged, “We have to be practical."
The Post reported that European officials are often contemplating in conversations behind the scenes, promising the Americans stricter action on China in exchange for their support for Ukraine and NATO.
“The problem with Europe is that it does not provide enough of a deterrent on its own,” he said Sunday in Munich. “I think the American security blanket has allowed European security to atrophy.”
He emphasized that withdrawing from NATO or European cooperation didn't have to be a choice, but that it must “pivot” to Asia.
On Sunday, Senator J.D. Vance told the audience in Munich, “I do not think that Vladimir Putin is an existential threat to Europe... And to the extent that he is...” he continued, it shows that “Europe has to take a more aggressive role in its own security.”
“The fact that he is a bad guy does not mean we can’t engage in basic diplomacy and prioritize America’s interests," he concluded.
'Do your homework'
An unnamed European security official stated, “When the former and possibly future leader of the free world says that he would sit back and see how Russia would attack NATO allies, we have to rethink what U.S. commitment towards Europe and Ukraine could look like."
“We do have to hope for the best but must prepare for the worst,” the official added, noting that doing so entails dropping Ukrainian aid and allowing Putin to "destabilize" the region.
Since Trump’s comments about Russia, the EU has been working on its plan B by composing a complement to NATO, one that works with US security assurances, but one that could still serve as an alternative if the US pulls out.
Even so, Europe is still divided since France and Germany can’t agree on who funds the bill, while Eastern Europe doesn’t fully trust Western Europe against Russian threats, and matching Russia's potential in a nuclear war remains unclear.
Senior US policymakers argue that in reality, there's not much they can do regarding decisions of foreign policy in future administrations.
German member of the European Parliament, Hannah Neumann, claimed that there was no doubt how much the Munich crowd preferred Biden but added that most of the crowd understood that a shift in US sentiment also plays a deeper role.
“It is clear to everyone: Be it Trump or Biden, the countries in the E.U. must come together and step up their security game,” she said.
“That is the homework.”
