US political uncertainty casts shadow on Munich Security Conference

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: The Washington Post
16 Feb 2024 16:07

For Vice President Kamala Harris, widely anticipated as a future White House contender, the visit to Germany serves as an opportunity to solidify her foreign policy credentials and enhance alliances with allies.

Vice President Kamala Harris speaking at a news conference (AP)

Addressing the Munich Security Conference on Friday, US Vice President Harris seeks to reassure European allies about American commitment to global conflicts and simultaneously convey a message to domestic voters: choosing Donald Trump in the upcoming November election would disrupt the global order, as per a piece published in The Washington Post.

Harris' address, her third at the annual gathering of global leaders, policymakers, and security officials in Munich, comes before a busy weekend during which she will engage with various European leaders, including German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.

Addressing the audience shortly after Trump raised concerns by suggesting support for Russia attacking NATO partners with insufficient defense spending, Harris might encounter challenges in reassuring the transatlantic allies of Washington, the report contended. These allies are acutely mindful of the electoral uncertainties surrounding this year's presidential race.

During a briefing for reporters, a senior administration official explained, as cited by The Washington Post, that Harris would emphasize the negative impact of isolationism and backing authoritarian governments, asserting that such approaches weaken the United States and harm its citizens.

In many aspects, it represents a worldwide interpretation of Biden and Harris' reelection narrative, suggesting that Trump would reverse the progress the administration has achieved over the past three years in restoring trust in Washington, as per the report.

Harris “will make a forceful case for the Biden-Harris Administration’s worldview and continued global leadership,” the senior administration official said, as quoted by The Washington Post, and will criticize Trump’s foreign policy framework “as shortsighted, dangerous, and destabilizing.”

“She will argue that they could lead to a world of disorder — to the detriment of the American people and the world,” the official stressed.

'What, exactly, is happening in the United States?'

Certainly, there is a lot on the agenda for this weekend's Munich gathering concerning updates on Russian movements in eastern Ukraine; "Israel's" intentions for a potentially severe ground invasion in Rafah; and an unspecified "space threat" from Russia, to name a few. However, a central question looms over this year's Munich Security Conference: "What, exactly, is happening in the United States?," the piece questions.

For several months, Europe's political, security, and intelligence establishment has anxiously observed the entanglement of crucial Ukraine aid in domestic politics. Despite assurances from American interlocutors that the funding bill would eventually pass, the prolonged struggle over the funds, coupled with former President Trump's statement about encouraging Russia to attack US allies over insufficient defense spending, has unsettled Europe, as per the report.

This has revived uncertainties about whether Europe can rely on the United States and what course of action to take if such reliability is in question. During the next two days, Vice President Harris aims to address this skepticism in both public statements and private discussions, as allies grapple with uncertainties about her tenure as Vice President.

As the presidential race intensifies with a narrowed field, President Biden faces challenges in certain polls where he lags behind Trump. Concerns about Biden's age and mental acuity persist, impacting his approval ratings negatively. Advisors of Vice President Harris anticipate that a robust performance on the global stage will mitigate doubts about her capability to fulfill the responsibilities of the nation's highest office. This becomes especially crucial as Harris serves as the deputy to the oldest president in US history.

For Harris, widely anticipated as a future White House contender, the visit to Germany serves as an opportunity to solidify her foreign policy credentials and enhance alliances with allies. In Munich, Harris and Secretary of State Antony Blinken aim to assure European partners of the unwavering US commitment to Ukraine and NATO. However, the ability to provide concrete assurances for the coming months, let alone years, seems limited. Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas, recently involved in an unprecedented impeachment, which has made him a symbol of US political dysfunction for some observers, will be joining them, the report stressed. Additionally, a group of US senators attending the event faces scrutiny regarding the alignment with Trump's message on abandoning Ukraine within the Republican party.

Zelensky may pose some of these questions during his visit to Munich, following stops in Berlin and Paris, where he seeks to secure sustained backing for Ukraine's struggle and demonstrate European determination. Europe, in turn, aims to convey to US officials and a particular presidential candidate that they are fulfilling their commitments in the transatlantic partnership. Notably, senior officials in Brussels, including NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg, emphasized recent boosts in defense spending by NATO members.

Stoltenberg, addressing the media, acknowledged that critics like Trump have a "valid point" regarding defense spending, but he emphasized that NATO is already taking steps to increase expenditures.

He noted that successive US administrations have stressed the need for European allies and Canada to contribute more, as fair burden-sharing has been lacking in the alliance. Stoltenberg expressed optimism, stating that NATO allies are now addressing this concern. Last year, NATO witnessed an 11 percent real rise in defense spending from Europe and Canada. For the current year, 18 out of 31 allies are expected to meet the 2 percent GDP spending target on defense, according to Stoltenberg.

European leaders acknowledge the limitations of their influence in the US political discourse, but many are making efforts to engage in the conversation nonetheless. In recent months, a series of foreign and defense ministers, along with senior European officials, have followed a familiar routine during visits to Washington. This typically includes meetings with administration officials and select congressional Republicans, followed by events at conservative think tanks like the Heritage Foundation or the American Enterprise Institute. The aim is to sway opinions within the rising isolationist faction of the Republican Party and reinforce the party's ailing foreign policy hawks. Despite challenges, many EU diplomats remain hopeful that the United States will eventually shift its stance, partly because they prefer not to contemplate the alternative.

"We believe that the defeat of Russia in Ukraine is a common interest,” said an anonymous senior EU diplomat, providing information on the condition of confidentiality to update the media.

“From what we understand from our U.S. colleagues, there is still a possibility that Congress approves,” the diplomat added. “We hope so — their support will remain much needed over the next months and years.”