The European Union is compelled to increase its military assistance to Ukraine twofold to compensate for the void created by the United States, a research institute that monitors assistance said on Friday.

Despite existing funds being depleted, Republicans in the US House of Representatives are obstructing the authorization of $60 billion in new military aid. This is occurring following recent statements from Ukrainian commanders and Western officials indicating that Ukrainian troops are facing ammunition shortages.

In a report assessing the status of military, financial, and humanitarian aid to Ukraine since February 24, 2022, the Germany-based Kiel Institute stated, "It is highly uncertain whether the US will send further military aid in 2024."   
 
As of January 15, 2024, the United States has provided Ukraine with 42.2 billion euros ($45.4 billion) in military aid from February 2022 to December 2023, averaging approximately two billion euros per month. In contrast, the European Union and its 27 members pledged 49.7 billion euros in military assistance since the beginning of the conflict but have only delivered or allocated 35.2 billion euros.

"Europe will have to at least double its current military support efforts in case there is no further support from the United States," said Christoph Trebesch, head of the Ukraine Support Tracker and Research Director at the Kiel Institute.

"This is a challenge, but just a question of political will. The EU countries are among the richest in the world and so far they have spent not even one percent of their 2021 GDP to support Ukraine," he added.

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Dive deeper 

Ukraine has received commitments totaling 265.1 billion euros since February 2022, comprising 141.3 billion in financial aid, 107.5 billion in military aid, and 16.3 billion in humanitarian aid, as per the report.

The European Union and its member states lead as the most significant contributors with 144.1 billion euros, followed by the United States with 67.7 billion and the United Kingdom with 15.7 billion. However, there is a substantial disparity between the pledged amounts and the actual funds disbursed, notably in the case of the EU, which has currently allocated only 77.2 billion due to the phased nature of the bloc's commitments over several years, the report added.

The big picture 

The suspension of US military assistance to Ukraine coincides with the intensification of the 2024 presidential election, where Donald Trump is poised to secure the Republican party nomination. Trump is against supporting Ukraine in its conflict with Russia and has recently used his influence to block a US border reform bill that would have authorized extra aid to Ukraine. Experts warn that if Trump returns to power in 2025, it could spell the end of US assistance to Ukraine. Europe has also grappled with internal divisions concerning the Ukraine issue.

Hungary's leader, Viktor Orban, resisted for several months before approving an additional 50 billion euros in aid for Ukraine over four years, relenting only earlier this month. In Slovakia, the new populist Prime Minister, Robert Fico, fulfilled election promises in November by obstructing a significant arms delivery planned by his predecessor.

The nature of the West's military contributions has adapted to the changing battlefield scenario. Initially, it involved providing tens of thousands of light weapons after the start of the war, progressing to helicopters and howitzers, and then advancing to sophisticated Western tanks, including American Abrams, British Challengers, and German Leopards.

Following approval from Washington, the Netherlands and Denmark agreed in August 2023 to supply 61 American F-16 fighter jets. Norway also joined the effort, and pilot training has commenced.

Read more: US Ukraine funding standoff risks Taiwan crisis: NATO