NATO recently commemorated its 75th anniversary, marking a significant milestone for the renowned military alliance. However, concerns have emerged regarding the future of the alliance, particularly with the United States potentially reducing its involvement, as per an article published by Foreign Affairs on Monday.

Former US President Donald Trump has consistently criticized NATO, labeling it as outdated, and has indicated a willingness to allow Russian influence over member states that fail to meet defense spending expectations. A potential second term for Trump could pose serious threats to European security, according to Foreign Affairs.

Supporters of Trump suggest that his statements regarding NATO may be tactics aimed at compelling European nations to increase their defense spending. However, former US officials who had direct involvement with Trump's NATO policies, including one of the article's authors (R. D. Hoojer, Jr.,  a Senior Fellow at the Atlantic Council and a former Dean of the NATO Defense College and Senior Director for Europe and Russia at the National Security Council.), firmly believe that he would withdraw from the alliance if given a second term, the article emphasized.

Trump harbors significant animosity towards the more restrained advisors who tempered his actions during his initial presidency. Should he return to the presidency in 2025, there will likely be fewer constraints on his decision-making.

" If he reaches the White House in 2025, the guardrails will be off."

The US Congress has expressed its concerns by passing legislation that prohibits a president from withdrawing from NATO without congressional approval, requiring either a two-thirds vote in the Senate or action by both houses of Congress. However, the article argued that Trump might find ways to bypass this restriction.

Undermining NATO: Trump's potential strategies and implications

The former US President has already cast doubt on his commitment to uphold NATO's Article 5 mutual defense clause. Trump could significantly undermine the alliance through measures such as withholding funding, recalling US troops and commanders from Europe, and obstructing crucial decisions in the North Atlantic Council without formally exiting it, as per the article.

Even if he refrains from completely withdrawing American support, Trump's current stance on NATO and lack of interest in aiding Ukraine, if adopted as official policy, would severely damage European confidence in US leadership and military determination, the article further maintained.

"If Trump is reelected and follows through on his anti-NATO instincts, the first casualty would be Ukraine. Trump has opposed additional military aid to Kyiv and continues to fawn over Russian President Vladimir Putin."

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NATO's future sans American leadership

NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg is working to safeguard aid to Ukraine in anticipation of potential shifts in US defense commitments under Trump. By aligning aid efforts with NATO, rather than relying solely on the US-led Ukraine Defense Contact Group, Stoltenberg aims to mitigate vulnerabilities for European countries.

However, if the United States reduces or withdraws its defense support for Europe during Trump's presidency, European nations may hesitate to provide Ukraine with crucial military assistance, leaving Kiev exposed. This scenario could compel Ukraine to negotiate unfavorable terms with Moscow, resulting in significant military and economic vulnerabilities to Russia, as per the article.

In the worst-case scenario, a collapse of Ukraine's defenses could lead to widespread repression and forced "Russification", impacting millions of people, it stressed.

"Should NATO’s conventional deterrence be weakened by the withdrawal of U.S. support, Russia would only be tempted to act more brazenly."

NATO member states collectively allocate 2% of GDP to defense spending. However, without US support, European armed forces still lack sufficient readiness, equipment, and capability to effectively counter a major-power adversary. Europe heavily relies on the United States in various critical domains, including airlift capabilities, air-to-air refueling, high-altitude air defense, space assets, and operational intelligence. These essential components are predominantly provided by the US.

Without American assistance, NATO's military superiority over Russia would be significantly diminished. Additionally, Europe's defense industry remains fragmented, and developing the necessary defense capabilities to compensate for the absence of American support could span the remainder of the current decade, as per the article.

"Should the United States abandon NATO, the erosion of nuclear deterrence would severely compound Europe’s conventional deterrence problem."

The article went on to say that NATO's survival without the United States is uncertain, with a collapse of the alliance being a distinct possibility. The European Union lacks the military capabilities to replace NATO effectively, as its strengths lie more in managing regional crises rather than engaging in large-scale warfare.

Even if a scaled-down version of NATO endures without significant American participation, it would face challenges such as divided leadership, insufficient deterrence capabilities, and the threat posed by an assertive adversary like Russia, it added.

Repercussions beyond borders

The ramifications would extend beyond Europe, the article emphasized. If Trump decides to withdraw from NATO as a punitive measure for allies' insufficient defense spending, it raises questions about the United States' commitment to its Asian allies, many of whom currently invest less in defense than NATO countries.

Presently, defense partnerships between the United States and Asian allies like Australia, Japan, and South Korea are strengthening. However, a loss of confidence in US commitments could prompt some of these nations to pursue nuclear capabilities, potentially destabilizing the region's fragile equilibrium maintained over decades. Furthermore, the erosion of US global leadership would have significant repercussions in the Middle East, as per the article.

"The United States’ economy might also suffer. Should a breakdown of deterrence trigger a general war with Russia or China, the economic costs would be staggering. Just a few Houthi fighters in Yemen have been able to disrupt global shipping through their attacks in the Red Sea. Imagine the consequences of a war among major powers."

Additionally, economic relationships frequently align with security partnerships. In the previous year, bilateral trade across the Atlantic in goods exceeded $1.2 trillion, with the United States having approximately $4 trillion invested in European sectors. Approximately five million Americans are employed in European-owned enterprises. Thus, the United States holds a significant economic interest in preserving "stability" in Europe.