NATO won't back Trump's new defense spending target
3 Min Read
NATO is unlikely to adopt Donald Trump's proposal for a massive defense spending increase, but is expected to agree on surpassing its current target.
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A military helicopter loads marines over a naval ship during an annual NATO naval exercise on Turkiye's western coast on the Mediterranean, on September 15, 2022. (AP)
NATO is unlikely to adopt Donald Trump's proposal for a 5% defense spending target but may exceed its current 2% goal, according to officials and analysts on Friday. Trump's suggestion, made on Tuesday, calls for a significant increase that no NATO country, including the US, currently meets.
Trump's comments, made during a press conference that also drew attention to Greenland, Canada, and Panama, reiterated his focus on NATO spending and threats to withhold protection from allies not meeting the target.
NATO officials acknowledged the need for increased defense spending but rejected the 5% target, which analysts deemed politically and economically unfeasible for most members, requiring hundreds of billions in additional funding.
However, officials said a new target is likely to be set at the NATO summit in The Hague in June, driven by concerns that Russia may attack a NATO country after Ukraine and influenced by Trump’s rhetoric.
Trump expectations vs. NATO members
The main uncertainties are what the new target will be and whether it will meet Trump's expectations. Some anticipate NATO’s 32 members will eventually agree on a 3% GDP target, but this could be challenging for many, as most are still struggling to meet the 2% goal set a decade ago.
NATO's total defense spending for 2024 was estimated at $1.474 trillion, with the US contributing $968 billion and European nations and Canada $507 billion. The average defense spending across NATO was about 2.71% of GDP.
Some officials and analysts view Trump's 5% suggestion as a starting point for negotiations, expecting he may ultimately agree to a target closer to 3%.
During last year's US presidential election campaign, Trump proposed a 3% defense spending target, noting it would require a roughly 30% increase in defense budgets for most NATO countries.
Spending surge following war in Ukraine
In response to the war in Ukraine, many European countries have boosted defense spending. However, tight public finances and political resistance in some nations make it difficult to find the additional billions needed to reach 3% of GDP on defense.
Trump has likened NATO defense spending to membership fees, though these are set by individual governments. Fenella McGerty, a defense economics expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, pointed out that while recent increases are "remarkable," it can take years for countries to meet new targets.
"Even if Europe were to continue that rate of quite extraordinary growth - over 10% in real terms in 2024 - it would still take another 10 years to even get to 3% of GDP," she said.
Many European governments believe the continent should assume a larger role in its own defense and lessen its dependence on the United States.
