The arrest warrants issued by the International Criminal Court (ICC) are a seismic shift in the world's legal dynamics as they mark the first time a Western ally from a "modern democracy" has been prosecuted for war crimes and crimes against humanity by a global judicial body, Julian Borger writes.

Borger contends in The Guardian that while the warrants may not have immediate consequences within "Israel", the severity of the allegations may get heavier over time, gradually limiting the occupation's global standing.

He argues that the stigma of being an alleged war criminal is no doubt difficult to shake off. While the United States, not an ICC member, will likely react strongly, this could undermine its credibility in championing global justice.

Many old Israeli friends, including Germany and the United Kingdom, may distance themselves, while other nations, notably in the Global South, that previously considered the ICC as a Western weapon, may now embrace it. 

Given the UN Security Council's passivity on Gaza, many will regard the ICC as a more effective guardian of the UN Charter, Borger notes. 

According to Iva Vukušić, an assistant professor in international history at Utrecht University, these arrest warrants are significant because they involve a close ally of "Israel's" Western permanent members of the Security Council, who have previously been largely immune to international judicial scrutiny.

According to Dahlia Scheindlin, an Israeli specialist on public opinion, “Israelis are absolutely rock-solid convinced that the international system in general basically exists in order to target and single out Israel unfairly. That kind of sentiment cuts across the board in the Jewish community.”

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That means that relatively few Israelis perceive the warrants as proof that Netanyahu is undermining their occupation on a worldwide scale, pushing it closer to pariah status. If anything, Netanyahu's numerous detractors will put aside their list of complaints against him long enough to reject a foreign court's authority over domestic affairs.

ICC warrants are even further unlikely to influence the next Israeli elections in October 2026.

Netanyahu and Gallant will be unable to travel to several ICC member nations because they will be required to act on the arrest order. The United States, Russia, and China are not members, but a visit by either of them would be exceedingly humiliating in the present White House - though the future Trump administration would be a different story.

Vukušić explained that the longevity of a warrant is until death, detailing how if and when Netanyahu again "goes to the US to speak to Congress, for example, it at least massively embarrasses the US and makes their hypocrisy so plain to see."

US falls in line to defend Netanyahu

Netanyahu has previously dismissed the ICC prosecutor’s request in May for arrest warrants, describing it as "absurd and false" and a "distortion of reality."

It is noteworthy that in June, the US House of Representatives passed a bill that would, if enacted, revoke US visas for ICC officials, restrict their entry into the United States, and impose financial penalties on any ICC personnel involved in efforts to prosecute or detain US allies.

At the time, incumbent US President Joe Biden voiced strong opposition to the legislation, which passed with a 247-155 majority, including the support of 42 Democrats.

Senator John Thune, who is poised to become the Senate majority leader, said on Sunday that the United States must enact legislation imposing sanctions on the International Criminal Court (ICC) if it proceeds with issuing arrest warrants against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu or other Israeli officials.

“If the ICC and its prosecutor do not reverse their outrageous and unlawful actions to pursue arrest warrants against Israeli officials, the Senate should immediately pass sanctions legislation, as the House has already done on a bipartisan basis,” he posted on X.