Paris warns German missile plans could trigger nuclear escalation
France is pressing Germany to clarify its long-range missile doctrine, warning that conventional strikes against Russia could provoke a nuclear response.
-
The French flag flies at the Arc de Triomphe during a ceremony at the Arc de Triomphe monument in Paris, Friday May 8, 2026. (AP Photo/Thibault Camus, Pool)
France is urging Germany to establish clear rules for deploying long-range missiles against Russia, warning that poorly communicated conventional strikes could trigger a nuclear response and draw Europe into a wider conflict, The Financial Times reports.
Paris is holding discussions with German officials to align Berlin's emerging doctrine on so-called deep precision strikes (DPS) with France's nuclear strategy, according to six people familiar with the talks.
One French official warned The Financial Times that a conventional attack on a Russian target could provoke a nuclear response if Moscow misinterpreted the signal.
One French official warned the British outlet that it would be possible to attack a Russian target with a conventional weapon but “get a nuclear response," adding, "if the Russians don’t get the signal right you could get to the nuclear threshold without realizing.”
The concerns come as Germany and several other European countries, including the United Kingdom, Poland, and the Nordic and Baltic states, expand their long-range missile arsenals as part of a broader military buildup against Moscow.
Read more: Le Pen, Melenchon lead 2027 French presidential poll
France warns of nuclear risks from Germany's missile buildup
Berlin is acquiring and developing ground-launched missile systems with ranges extending from 500 kilometers to more than 2,000 kilometers, giving German forces the capacity to strike targets deep inside Russian territory.
The expansion forms part of Germany's effort to assume a leading role in European military rearmament following the war in Ukraine and growing uncertainty over US security commitments under US President Donald Trump.
However, the acquisition of weapons capable of reaching deep into Russia has raised questions about targeting decisions, authorization procedures and the potential consequences of their deployment.
France is particularly concerned that its proposed concept of "forward deterrence" could make Paris accountable for military strikes conducted by European partners. One French official told The Financial Times that Russia might hold France responsible for attacks carried out using capabilities connected to its nuclear deterrence strategy.
“If you invite someone into your house, you are responsible if they set it ablaze,” the official said.
France is also concerned that Germany lacks the strategic experience and established nuclear terminology needed to communicate the implications of such military operations to Moscow.
“There are habits we developed over time. The Germans do not have it,” another official told the outlet, describing France's accumulated nuclear doctrine as a set of "unspoken" rules.
Berlin seeks common European military doctrine
Germany has acknowledged the need for coordination, with a senior official saying Berlin supports establishing a shared understanding among European capitals of military escalation.
A senior German official told The Financial Times that Berlin “could not agree more” that European capitals needed “a joint doctrine and a joint understanding about the escalation ladder”.
He rejected suggestions that France was forcing Germany into the discussions, arguing that Berlin had recognized the need for a common approach from the beginning of its long-range weapons program.
The official told the outlet that formal discussions had been delayed by France's internal debate over its nuclear strategy but were now gaining momentum. One possible outcome could be a joint statement by Germany, France and Britain setting out their approach, although such an agreement remains some way off.
The discussions follow French President Emmanuel Macron's March announcement that he would open a debate on how France's nuclear capabilities could contribute to protecting European partners.
Paris is particularly focused on Germany because of its extensive rearmament plans and a defense budget worth €780 billion over the five years through the end of 2030.
Read more: Abu Dhabi talks extended to Wednesday with Europe shadow in the room
Britain joins discussions as NATO confronts escalation risks
Britain, Europe's other nuclear-armed NATO member alongside France, is also discussing long-range strike capabilities with Germany.
The two countries are developing weapons with ranges exceeding 2,000 kilometers under a bilateral defense agreement signed in 2024. London is also discussing the possibility of France joining the program.
A senior British official sought to downplay French concerns, telling The Financial Times that Germany's changing strategic culture should be welcomed rather than viewed through historical stereotypes.
He also stressed that deep precision strikes are intended to weaken an adversary's military capabilities by targeting command-and-control centers, logistics hubs, ammunition depots and weapons factories, rather than government buildings or nuclear facilities.
“All of us are conscious of the need not to provoke escalation to nuclear level,” the official said.
However, the growing arsenal raises questions about how far European governments are prepared to go in expanding military operations against Russia and whether their coordination mechanisms can prevent miscalculations.
Ingo Gerhartz, the German general heading NATO's command responsible for the defense of Central Europe and its eastern flank, said decisions involving deep precision strikes must be coordinated across the alliance.
“Whatever a single nation is doing towards Russia, they always will attribute it [to the] whole [of] Nato,” he told the Berlin Security Conference.
Gerhartz added that deep precision strike capabilities had to be integrated into NATO's broader military policy.
European rearmament raises questions over political control
The debate reflects the consequences of Germany's shift away from its traditionally cautious military posture and its ambition to become a leading force in European defense.
It also highlights how uncertainty surrounding Washington's long-term security commitments is accelerating European military integration while creating new tensions over who controls the continent's expanding arsenal.
German political and military leaders have sought to present new capabilities, including satellite-based reconnaissance and intelligence systems, as European assets rather than exclusively German ones.
Military analyst Franz-Stefan Gady argued that Berlin must establish clear targeting priorities, escalation-management procedures and authorization mechanisms.
He also questioned whether Germany's political leadership fully understands the military implications of its plans.
“My main concern is with Germany’s political leadership. I don’t think they really understand how the Bundeswehr envisions fighting the Russians, or how crucial it is to hit targets deep inside Russia if the Bundeswehr’s and Nato’s blueprint for defeating the Russian military is to be put into practice,” he said, per The Financial Times' report.
“That needs to be debated in much more detail — perhaps not openly, but certainly among political and military leaders.”
A spokesperson for Germany's Defense Ministry confirmed to the news outlet that Berlin was developing deep precision strike capabilities with Britain and exploring the possibility of including France. The Élysée did not respond to The Financial Times' request for comment.
Read more: Lavrov: US shifts military presence eastward, but will remain in NATO