Earlier this week, EU officials circulated a confidential briefing, obtained by Politico, outlining several individualized plans to reclaim or avoid losing four key "priority countries": Brazil, Chile, Nigeria, and Kazakhstan, which are on the periphery of the Western-led alliance attempting to isolate Russia, arm Ukraine, and constrain China.

The document outlines where and how the EU believes it can make progress in each area, and goes far beyond the expected invocation of potential trade agreements, suggesting tailored offers the EU can make on energy, migration, economic development, and security coordination. The emphasis is clearly on carrots rather than sticks.

The unspoken goal is to "make more friends" and build a next-generation economy without pandering to autocrats, according to Politico. That said, Russia and China loom large over the entire document, with several concerned references to the countries' "global influence or destabilizing behavior."

“We find ourselves in a competitive geopolitical environment: not only a battle of narratives but also a battle of offers,” the document argues. “We need to improve our offer and enhance our relationship with them.”

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EU foreign affairs ministers are set to discuss the strategy at a meeting Monday in Luxembourg. It is, according to one senior EU official, “a huge reorientation … of the way we do foreign policy — not of our foreign policy, of course, but the way we do it.”

The memo shows how, fourteen months into the Ukraine war, the EU is still grappling with how to expand its influence. While the West’s core coalition has remained intact during the war, officials have struggled to make broader inroads in Latin America, Africa, and Asia — especially in the face of the billions China is spreading around.

“It is not rocket science, but it’s good that it’s now being brought together into a somewhat coherent strategy,” one diplomat said. The “ultimate aim,” he added, “would be to somehow propose an alternative that could be more attractive than what China offers.”

Why did the four countries make the list? 

In many ways, it’s easy to see why the four countries made the list. 

Each is a potential EU foothold in areas where Western allies are competing for influence (and resources) with Russia and China. Brazil and Chile are in raw materials-rich Latin America; Nigeria is a West African economic powerhouse; and Kazakhstan is a Central Asian gas producer.

These factors are made explicit in a two-by-two grid for each country that lists the “EU’s interests” in the country, the country’s “interests,” and then the “challenges” and “opportunities.”

Latin America tops the list, with Brazil and Chile listed first. 

“There is a firm conviction amongst our leaders,” according to a second senior EU official, “that Latin America, the Caribbean is key.” The region, the official added, broadly shares “our democratic principles” and “the belief that you have to uphold the multilateral system.”

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The EU sees an opportunity in Brazil with the country's recent transition from far-right nationalist Jair Bolsonaro to Latin American leftist Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. “The current government shows signs of willingness to step up cooperation,” a summary reads. Brazil wants to “be recognized and treated as a global actor,” the document later adds, and is seeking to “improve EU market access for agricultural products.”

Moving south, the EU's next target is Chile, which has a left-wing leader in Gabriel Boric. While the document expresses concern that "Chile's far-left questions trade agreements," it also sees Chile as an ally on "green policies" and a "voice of strong support on Ukraine."

It goes on to say that Chile is "interested in the EU welfare state model," which appears to be a reference to the country's ongoing efforts to draft a new constitution. However, it claims that China is also infiltrating the country, urging the EU to "reduce China's growing influence in Chile" and arguing that Chile wants to bond with the EU "as an alternative to the US-China dilemma."

To counter this, the memo recommends finalizing a tariff-cutting EU-Chile economic agreement, which negotiators completed last December but which still needs to be legally scrutinized and translated before it can be ratified. Chile has expressed "annoyance at the long and complex internal EU procedures" that are delaying the agreement, according to the document.

Asia and Africa

In Asia, the document focuses on Kazakhstan, with a special emphasis on the impact of EU sanctions on the country.

A major interest in Kazakhstan is to "ensure there is no circumvention of international sanctions" on Russia through the country, according to the EU. Kazakhstan, for its part, wishes to avoid sending crude oil through Russia and instead "export more oil to the EU."

Kazakhstan’s goal, it argues, “Remain a reliable mediation platform between the East and the West.”

The document states that Kazakhstan is seeking visa-free travel for its citizens and suggests that the EU could reach an agreement with the country to provide EU-wide air service.

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Facilitating legal entry into the EU is also a focus of the document's section on Nigeria, Africa's largest economy.

According to the memo, Nigeria views the EU "as a closed space with strict visa policies" that lacks "openness on legal migration." Nigeria wants "more legal migration opportunities" and fewer visa restrictions. Furthermore, it notes that Nigeria's newly elected new government allows for "a new engagement."

“In this era of geo-economics the EU will have to be less naive and more concerned with economic security,” the EU official said. “This will require a more strategic and combined use of all the panoply of tools available.”

“This can only work if there is a mind shift and more collaborative ways of working,” the official added.