Poll reveals sharp American voter shift toward Democrats for 2026

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Agencies
Today 08:27

A new Marist Poll shows Democrats with a 14-point lead over Republicans for the 2026 midterms, driven by a sharp shift among independents and weakening GOP loyalty.

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House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries and fellow Democrats speak on the health care funding fight on the steps of the House before votes to end the government shutdown, at the Capitol in Washington, on November 12, 2025 (AP)

Democrats hold their largest advantage in eight years in the race for control of Congress, according to a new NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll that shows a decisive shift among independent voters and signs of erosion within the Republican base.

The nationwide survey, conducted November 10-13, finds that 55% of respondents say they would prefer a Democrat to represent them in Congress in the 2026 midterm elections, compared to 41% who favor a Republican. The 14-point margin marks a dramatic swing from November 2024, when the two parties were deadlocked at 48% each.

Independents break sharply toward Democrats

While both parties maintain overwhelming support from their own voters, the poll indicates a significant realignment among independents, particularly those who backed current US President Donald Trump in the 2024 presidential election.

Among independent voters, Democrats hold a 33-point lead, with 61% saying they would choose a Democratic candidate compared to just 28% favoring a Republican. That gap suggests a sizeable bloc of formerly Trump-aligned independents is distancing itself from GOP congressional candidates ahead of 2026.

Asymmetry in partisan loyalty

The poll also shows asymmetry in partisan loyalty, as 96% of Kamala Harris’ 2024 voters say they would support a Democratic congressional candidate, while only 88% of Trump’s 2024 voters say they would back a Republican, and 10% say they would vote for a Democrat.

The findings come on the heels of the 2025 election cycle, where Democrats notched a series of victories in down-ballot races across multiple states. Many of these campaigns emphasized the rising cost of living, an issue that continues to dominate voter priorities.

The poll reinforces this trend as 57% of Americans say lowering prices should be President Trump’s top priority, far eclipsing all other policy concerns.

Immigration ranks a distant second at 16%, followed by crime at 9%, ending the Ukraine–Russia war at 7%, "maintaining peace between Israel and Gaza" at 6%, and drug trafficking from Latin America at 4%.

Trump's mishaps result in a Democratic generic ballot advantage

Democrats have not enjoyed a comparable generic ballot advantage since mid-2022, when they held a 7-point edge, half of today’s margin. The new numbers highlight the magnitude of the current shift, which could reshape expectations for next year’s congressional races.

The Trump administration has recently shifted its messaging to focus more heavily on economic pressures, signaling a recognition of the political weight affordability now carries. On Friday, Trump ordered the removal of US tariffs on more than 200 food and agricultural products, including coffee, beef, bananas, orange juice, and a range of spices and inputs used in food production, in a bid to ease pressures on grocery prices and respond to mounting voter anger over household affordability.

The NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll surveyed 1,443 adults, including 1,291 registered voters. The margin of error is 3 percentage points for adults and 3.1 percentage points for registered voters.