Center-right senator Rodrigo Paz Pereira, 58, has won Bolivia’s presidential runoff, ushering in a significant political shift after nearly two decades of dominance by the leftist Movimiento al Socialismo (Mas) party.

With over 97% of ballots tallied in the electoral court’s preliminary count, Paz Pereira won 54.6% of the vote, while right-wing former president Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga garnered 45.4%.

The electoral court underscored that these results remain “preliminary and not definitive,” explaining that Bolivia conducts two counts: a rapid one based on photographed ballots sent to a processing center, and a slower, definitive count where votes are publicly verified at polling stations. The final, official results are expected within seven days.

Celebrating the results at a hotel in La Paz, Paz Pereira urged supporters to “keep building a future, a new path after 20 years that have left us out of the economy … and geopolitics,” pledging to “create jobs.”

He added, “Ideology doesn’t put food on the table. What does is the right to work, strong institutions, legal security, respect for private property, and having certainty about your future mean – and that’s what we want to work for.”

Deepened US ties quest

The president-elect also expressed hopes of deepening ties with Washington, saying he looked forward “to build a close relationship with one of the most important governments in the world, to be part of the solutions from 8 November [the inauguration date] onwards, and to ensure that Bolivia does not lack hydrocarbons.”

A senator representing the southern department of Tarija, Paz Pereira is the son of former president Jaime Paz Zamora, who governed between 1989 and 1993. Despite a long political career as a city councilor, mayor, and congressman, he portrayed himself as an outsider during the campaign, a message that resonated strongly with voters. Starting as a low-polling candidate, he ultimately became the surprise victor of the first round.

Calm election

Election day unfolded peacefully, according to the electoral court and international observers, including representatives from the European Union.

Defeated candidate Jorge Quiroga, who briefly served as president from 2001 to 2002 and was making his fourth attempt to reclaim power, addressed supporters at a La Paz hotel. Opening his remarks, he said he had called Paz Pereira to concede and offer congratulations.

“Please, I understand the pain we’re feeling. Believe me, if we had systemic evidence [of electoral fraud], we would put it on the table,” Quiroga told his supporters.

He noted that he would monitor the final vote count but emphasized that he “respected the work” of the electoral court in the first round and “will respect it” in the runoff.

Governing challenges ahead

Even with his Partido Demócrata Cristiano (PDC) securing the largest number of seats, 49 deputies and 16 senators, Paz Pereira will still lack a congressional majority, posing early hurdles for advancing his legislative agenda.

His grassroots campaign, which saw him travel across roughly 220 of Bolivia’s 327 municipalities, paid off in regions long considered Mas bastions. His message of economic renewal and inclusivity appeared to resonate with voters exhausted by political polarization.

In a country where roughly 80% of workers operate in informal or self-employed sectors, Paz Pereira ran on a platform of “popular capitalism", advocating for low-interest loans to small entrepreneurs. He also vowed to cancel citizens’ debts to the state and promised that “there will be no more smuggling because everything will be legal,” pledging to cut import tariffs on goods such as technology and vehicles.

Analysts, however, attribute much of his success to his running mate, former police captain Edman Lara Montaño, 39, popularly known as Capt Lara. He rose to prominence after exposing alleged police corruption in viral TikTok videos, revelations that ultimately led to his dismissal from the force.

Campaigning on an anti-corruption message, Capt Lara often appeared more like an independent candidate than a deputy. He declared, “I’m the guarantee – if Rodrigo Paz doesn’t deliver, I’ll confront him.”

Following the results, he said, “We must rebuild the country’s economy; we must guarantee the supply of diesel and petrol. People are suffering; we need to stabilise the prices of basic goods and put an end to corruption.”

Foreign leverage

Analysts note that US policy has played an increasingly visible role in shaping Bolivia’s options. Following years of strained relations under leftist governments, both leading candidates have signaled a willingness to renew ties with Washington and attract US investment in the energy and mining sectors. American interest in Bolivia’s lithium reserves, among the world’s largest, has added to diplomatic pressure for regulatory reforms that would open the resource to private and foreign development.

At the same time, some Bolivian economists argue that dependence on external financing and dollar scarcity has left the country vulnerable to global financial shifts dominated by the United States. The shortage of hard currency has forced the central bank to restrict dollar sales, feeding inflation and undermining consumer confidence.

Paz Pereira, to be inaugurated on November 8 for a five-year term, will face the task of rebuilding the economy while balancing the demands of domestic reform and external influence.