Russia, US have good chance of agreeing on intermediate, short-range missiles

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After the US-Russia meeting in Geneva and a follow-up meeting of the NATO-Russia Council in Brussels, the US and allies expressed that NATO's open-door policy is not up for discussion, however they have expressed willingness for continuing dialogue where possible.

Thomas Pickering, a former US undersecretary of state for political affairs and an ex-ambassador in Russia, told Sputnik that Washington seems ready to discuss missile deployment limitations, putting the ball in Moscow's court.

The US has repeatedly accused Russia of military buildup on the Ukrainian border. However, President Vladimir Putin had said earlier this month Moscow pursues a peaceful foreign policy; but maintained that it has every right to defend its security.

Experts: Agreeing on missiles is possible

According to analysts, Russia and the US have a high possibility of reaching a deal on the deployment of intermediate and short-range missiles, while progress on third-country NATO membership is improbable.

In January, Moscow and Washington began negotiations on security guarantees in order to defuse escalating tensions in Europe and prevent further escalation. Russia has offered its draft ideas, emphasizing that NATO's refusal to expand eastward is non-negotiable. 

Marc Finaud, head of the arms proliferation office at the Geneva Center for Security Policy, said both sides are likely to adopt harsh stands in the next round of negotiations in order to placate their respective home supporters, but both recognize that mutual compromises and diplomacy are essential "for everyone's benefit."

Nikolai Sokov, a senior fellow at the Vienna Center for Disarmament and Nonproliferation, said, "It is possible to reach an agreement on practical issues that could alleviate tensions such as reduction of the concentration of forces, non-deployment of various weapons, limitation of exercises, etc. Whether Russia will accept that option remains to be seen."

According to Sokov, an INF-type deal is viable, and Moscow offered its reactivation in 2019 but was rejected by the West at the time. According to the expert, the new agreement will not be a carbon duplicate of the previous one since both parties want different things from it. For example, Russia wants to handle air- and sea-launched missiles, whilst the US wants to prohibit nuclear missiles.

Sokov added that "if the US and NATO fail to acknowledge that Russia has the right to make own security decisions as the West does and the talks fall through, the world will likely see a slowly developing arms race and greater tension."

He added that "Russia has had a better hand in this game, up to now. America has produced decisive leaders in the past, but America is now hampered by a divided population, political stalemate, and competing crises, including Covid, climate change, and the rise of China. 

Russia slams US claims on Ukraine as 'misguiding'

US intelligence officials accused Russia of putting effort to create a pretext for its troops to "invade Ukraine", according to the White House.

The intelligence findings, according to White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki, show Russia is laying the groundwork through a social media disinformation campaign that portrays Ukraine as an aggressor preparing an imminent attack against Russian-backed forces in eastern Ukraine.

The Russian Embassy in the United States has described the recent remarks of the White House about Moscow's alleged preparations for an invasion of Ukraine as "information pressure".

"Such statements confirm the incessant information pressure on our country. Moreover, the same scenario is repeated: there is a 'stuffing' of a sensation, which then, repeated many times by the media, turns into the main news," the Russian diplomatic mission said in a statement posted on its Facebook page.

The Embassy called on the US authorities to closely work on security guarantees based on the draft treaties proposed by Russia and stressed that "Moscow supports diplomatic solutions to all international problems."