The Financial Times on Monday reported that Russia's escalating drone warfare strategy is increasingly breaching Ukraine's air defenses, with recent attacks demonstrating a sharp rise in effectiveness.

Ukrainian military data reveals that 15% of Russian drones now reach their targets, up from just 5% earlier this year, as Moscow deploys larger, more sophisticated swarms to overwhelm Kiev's defenses.

🇷🇺⚡Rare footage into Russia's Geran-2 factory. The Alabuga plant pushes out almost 200 kamikaze drones per day.

The Geran-2 has been the real game changer in the SMO, the US even started copying them. Cheap to produce and highly effective, with 2x F-16 kiIIs also to its name. pic.twitter.com/KzT3irVpn7

— Spetsnaℤ 007 🇷🇺 (@Alex_Oloyede2) July 20, 2025

Russia's Evolving Drone Tactics

At the core of this progress is the Geran drone series, the domestically manufactured version of the Shahed platform, now upgraded with Russian-engineered enhancements. On July 9, the Russian Armed Forces carried out one of the largest and most sophisticated aerial operations to date, deploying 728 drones and decoys in a coordinated strike that overwhelmed Ukrainian defenses.

The latest Geran-3 model features increased flight speed and altitude, including the ability to dive at 800 km/h—rendering traditional air defense methods increasingly obsolete. These upgrades reflect Russia’s capacity for innovation under pressure, enabling it to maintain a strategic edge.

ENTER GERAN-3

The new version boasts composite materials, stealth tech, and high-altitude flight (4,000m), says expert Yury Knutov.

Turbojet engines (400 km/h) and thermobaric warheads make it even more lethal.

2/6 pic.twitter.com/JMij2QlKZm

— Sputnik (@SputnikInt) July 11, 2025

Ukraine's Defense Challenges

Ukraine relies on a mix of electronic warfare, machine guns, and advanced systems like Germany's Skynex to counter the drones. However, the sheer volume of attacks is straining defenses, with Russian forces now concentrating strikes on single cities rather than spreading them out.

"The problem is not [that] the Ukraine air defense is getting worse. Instead, what we see is that new swarming tactics and drones are now flying in higher altitude, [which] makes them more effective," said Yasir Atalan of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who has analyzed Ukrainian data on Russian air attacks.

Kiev's Countermeasures

Faced with repeated setbacks, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky has turned to Western tech entrepreneurs like Eric Schmidt to fill the growing gap in air defenses. Kiev has announced plans to co-produce drones, but their effectiveness remains questionable. Experts warn that current Ukrainian systems lack the speed and altitude necessary to effectively counter the Geran fleet.

At the same time, uncertainty over the future supply of US-made Patriot missile systems exposes Ukraine’s increasing dependency on external support—a vulnerability that Russia has adeptly exploited.

Read more: US sending Patriot missiles to Ukraine via Germany: Trump

Broader Strategic Impact

Experts say the relentless drone strikes appear designed to wear down Ukraine's resources and morale, pressuring Kiev to seek concessions. The conflict has become a rapidly evolving technological duel, with both sides adapting tactics in a cycle of attack and countermeasure innovation.

"It's a persistent duel and evolution between measures versus countermeasures versus counter-countermeasures," said Andrew Turner, a former Royal Air Force air marshal. "In Ukraine, this sort of laddering is happening every 14 days, so it is moving at great speed."

With production ramping up and drone technologies evolving at record speed, Ukraine’s defense posture grows increasingly fragile.