Spain's Socialists received one seat fewer following votes from abroad in last week's election, which has made it harder for them to form a left-wing coalition since they would require the support of Catalan independence-seekers as opposed to their sole abstention, according to analysts quoted by Reuters on Saturday.

After tense elections, neither the left nor right blocs garnered enough seats to form a majority, as Catalan parties Esquerra Republicana de Catalunya (ERC) and Junts emerged as winners, with both controlling seven seats each.

Esquerra is believed to likely support Socialist Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez, but if the new seat count is confirmed by the electoral commission, then the Junts, which is the more hardline of the Catalan parties, would need to actively support Sanchez to allow him to form a government.

Votes from over 233,000 Spanish citizens living abroad provided one seat in Madrid to the People's Party (PP), which was initially awarded to the Socialists in the initial vote count, as per a statement by the PP and Socialists on Saturday. However, this has not yet been officially confirmed.

A government can be formed when an absolute majority is reached in a parliamentary vote in the 350-seat Congress. If neither bloc secures that, a second vote in parliament goes on and whichever garners the most votes wins by a simple majority.

With the revised seat count, the PP could gain a total of 171 votes, including 137 of its own, 33 from the hard-right Vox party, and one from the regional Union of the Navarran People. No other parties claimed to support an administration that includes Vox.

Read more: Meet the four main candidates in Spain's general election

A spokesperson for the regional Canarian Coalition with one lawmaker told Reuters on Saturday that it wouldn't support a government containing Vox and that it still hadn't made up its mind about supporting Sanchez. 

Sanchez could muster 171 seats with 121 Socialist seats and the support of the far-left Sumar party (31 seats), Esquerra (7), EH Bildu (6), the Basque Nationalist Party (5), and the Galician Nationalist Bloc (1).

On one condition

Depending on how the Canaries Coalition decides to move forward, Sanchez will probably need at least one vote from Junts to beat the PP and its allies.

Pablo Simon, a political analyst at the Carlos III University in Madrid, told Reuters, "This will make it harder for Sanchez because if he needs their votes, it will give Junts more power to demand things in return." 

Junts previously said on Monday that it could aid Sanchez in succeeding only if he gives them permission for a referendum in Catalonia on independence and an amnesty for all separatists facing legal charges for a failed independence bid back in 2017.

That referendum would lead to a change in the Spanish Constitution and the vote of a majority of lawmakers which is almost certain not to happen. 

Meanwhile, PP leader Alberto Nunez Feijoo is still adamant about forming a right-wing coalition.

Pedro Rollan, the PP regional coordinator, said in Madrid on Saturday, "Feijoo wants to govern for all Spaniards."

Sumar leader Yolanda Díaz urged all "progressive forces" to support Sanchez.

"I believe that political groups must rise to the occasion, and I appeal to the progressive and democratic forces of the country to guarantee (Sanchez) is voted in as prime minister," Diaz said in an interview for the Italian newspaper La Repubblica on Saturday.

Tomorrow is a critical day for #Spain.
On Sunday, voters will decide whether the country will lean towards the far right, joining some other #European countries, or face a prolonged period of political deadlock with a caretaker government in place. pic.twitter.com/ZR94tX9gfr

— Al Mayadeen English (@MayadeenEnglish) July 23, 2023