Taiwan FM warns of conflict with China in 2027
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The Taiwanese Foreign Minister warns that Taiwan takes alleged Chinese threats "very seriously."
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Taiwan Foreign Minister Joseph Wu speaks during a press conference in Taipei, Taiwan, Sunday, March 26, 2023. (AP)
Taiwan's Foreign Minister has stated that Taipei is preparing for a conflict with China in 2027.
"We are taking the Chinese military threat very seriously," Joseph Wu said on LBC's Tonight with Andrew Marr. I believe that 2027 is the year in which we must be serious."
US intelligence alleges that China's leader, Xi Jinping, has ordered the country's military to be ready to "annex" Taiwan by 2027, while China's President has been emphasizing that the Taiwan issue "cannot be passed on from generation to generation" since being elected in 2012.
Other US officials believe a conflict will occur sooner rather than later. Gen Mike Minihan, a former deputy commander of the US Indo-Pacific Command, stated in January that his "gut" told him to expect a conflict in 2025.
Read next: China cannot vow not to use force against separatists: Envoy
Admiral John Aquilino, commander of the United States Indo-Pacific Command, told Congress' Armed Services Committee on Tuesday that "everybody is guessing" when it comes to predicting conflict timelines.
"Military capabilities are a necessary but not sufficient condition for China to launch an attack," Yun Sun, director of the Stimson Center's China program said. "China's military readiness does not indicate that it will make the move."
Sun pointed out that the Chinese government has never publicly stated a target date of 2027. "I don't think Xi plans to invade Taiwan in 2027 unless Taiwan declares independence by then," she said.
Relations with China
The Taiwanese FM’s comments on Thursday nonetheless indicate the extent to which Taiwan plans to bolster support from the West ahead of a so-called invasion. In the interview with Marr, Wu emphasized the risks to the UK posed by a conflict, saying that “even though the UK is looking at China as an economic opportunity in the long run, an attack on Taiwan would affect the UK in a very serious manner”.
“Therefore we need to look at a comprehensive way for the UK, Taiwan, and other countries to come together”.
Read next: China can rapidly dominate Taiwan airspace: US leaked docs
In particular, Wu stressed the extent to which the UK – and the rest of the world – is dependent on the semiconductors produced in Taiwan, which makes more than 90% of the most advanced computer chips. “If there’s any disruption to the supply chain or to the shipping lanes, I think it’s going to have a serious impact on the rest of the world,” Wu said.
In an interview with The Guardian on Tuesday, the UK’s foreign minister, James Cleverly, said the UK must not “just pull the shutters down” on its relationship with China. However, lawmakers on both sides of the Atlantic are concerned about the "threat" China allegedly poses to regional and global security.
Wu drew an analogy between China and Russia, claiming that the world has previously "failed to take Russia's aggressive postures seriously," claiming “We did not stop Russia from taking over Crimea. And the Russians were emboldened to go ahead and initiate a war against Ukraine.”
“We did not stop China from imposing national security law in Hong Kong. And people were asking: is Taiwan going to be next? Now Taiwan is feeling all this pressure.”
