The existential threat Hezbollah poses on 'Israel'; a striking reality
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A report by The Conversation concludes that Hezbollah's ongoing operations are destroying the pillars of the Israeli security doctrine strategy "beyond repair".
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An Israeli occupation soldier watches a televised speech by Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah near the border with Lebanon on November 11, 2023. (AFP)
The Palestinian Resistance's Operation Al-Aqsa Flood was the day that "Israel's national security strategy" collapsed, The Conversation said in a report published on Tuesday.
The article explained that the security doctrine strategy comprised three critical elements; "deterrence, early warning, and defense," all of which had failed completely on October 7.
Meanwhile, Hezbollah's ongoing operations proceed to damage these elements "beyond repair", it added.
"Israel now faces its biggest existential threat from Hezbollah, which is constantly learning, gaining experience from the battlefield and developing by the day," the report said.
Read more: Hezbollah transforms 'Israel' into a punching bag: Israeli media
Rockets, drones, and volume
According to the report, the Islamic Resistance in Lebanon has showcased a range of developments throughout the course of the ongoing war, including in the military, intelligence, and media fields.
The report mentioned Hezbollah's introduction of new weapons, most notably the drones, and heavier, more precise rockets and missiles, which the Resistance successfully utilized in complex attacks against the Israeli occupation after assessing and studying the strengths and vulnerabilities of the entity's anti-air systems.
In an interview for Israeli Maariv newspaper on Tuesday, Tal Beeri, the head of research at the Israeli-based Alma Institute think tank, said that if a full war between the occupation and Hezbollah broke out, the Israeli front would absorb a volume of fire it has not ever seen – including what was seen in 2006.
According to the research institute's findings, Hezbollah possesses a substantial arsenal, including approximately 150,000 mortars, 65,000 rockets with a range of up to 80 km, 5,000 rockets and missiles capable of reaching distances between 80-200 km, 5,000 missiles with a range of over 200 km, and 2,500 unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs). In the event of a war, it is estimated that Hezbollah could launch several thousand drones and missiles into "Israel" each day.
Read more: Hezbollah ATGM, drone launches more than doubled in one month
"Hezbollah's main firepower is missiles and rockets. In fact, Hezbollah's firepower can target the entire territory of the State of Israel with accurate shooting capability," Beeri said. "In the first week or two of the war," and due to Hezbollah's launching volume, especially toward the north, "it will be almost impossible to lead a normal life."
He also warned of the Resistance's use of one-way drones, saying that drones are being used today by Hezbollah, "but in an all-out war, its volume and intensity will be more significant."
Freedom of flight hindered
"Israel's" previously uncontested air dominance and freedom of movement in Lebanon's airspace have been compromised, the report in The Conversation said. This shift was evidenced when Hezbollah successfully targeted and destroyed an Israeli surveillance balloon on May 14, along with its launch base and control center.
Moreover, the downing of the Israeli Hermes 900 in early June, the entity's most advanced drone with an estimated price tag of over $8 million, is the second one to be shot down by the group ever, further imposing a challenge that the occupation is yet to know how to address.
Read more: Hezbollah's drones bypass Iron Dome, Kiryat Shmona on fire again
Meanwhile, Alma estimates that the Resistance has hundreds of advanced missiles, including anti-aircraft and cruise missiles.
Settlements cutting ties with 'Israel'
Hezbollah's escalating threat has stirred anxiety and doubt among Israelis, fueling further scrutiny of the entity's political and military leadership, the report continued.
The Lebanese Resistance's attacks have caused significant damage to settlements in northern occupied Palestine, leading to the widespread evacuation of its settlers.
Amid the Israeli government and army's inability to stop Hezbollah's operations, mayors along the border in the al-Jalil region have even considered unilateral separation from the occupation entity due to perceived abandonment by Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.
So far, one settlement has taken this unprecedented decision.
In May, the head of the Israeli Margaliot settlement, Eitan Davidi, announced that the settlement had decided to cut ties with the Israeli government and remove all forces from the settlement. He said that the settlement does not need to be protected from Hezbollah, but rather from the Israeli government, which has been destroying the settlement through its decisions.
Just awaiting orders
Despite promises to restore the affected areas and facilitate the return of evacuees, the Israeli government has thus far taken no action, further eroding public "faith and confidence," with Netanyahu unable to deter Hezbollah.
The occupation's military, the report continues, appears to be adopting a strategy aimed at extricating itself and the government from the intricate challenges posed by the confrontation with Hezbollah. It seems that neither can the army sustain its adjustments to the mounting pressure on the battlefield nor is it inclined to initiate a full-scale war with the Resistance in Lebanon due to its potentially severe consequences.
Read more: Lebanon prepared for full-scale war if 'Israel' wills it, Qassem says
The expanding recognition within the Israeli security establishment of this changed landscape has led to a consensus regarding the need to broaden the scope of the Israeli delegation's mandate in the ceasefire-prisoner exchange negotiations, The Conversation concluded.
Commenting on the situation on the Lebanese-Palestinian border, Beeri said, "We are at a point where it is difficult to know what will develop from here, Hezbollah is increasing the pace and leading the IDF to enter a campaign, so the situation is very fluid."
On possible scenarios in the case of a war between the Resistance and "Israel", the top researcher at Alma said he predicted that Hezbollah would attempt to advance into al-Jalil.
"Although not on the scale of thousands" of fighters, "but [Hezbollah] will definitely try to infiltrate using dozens if not hundreds of operatives - in a targeted area," he said.
"The Radwan's unit is capable of doing this - they just need to be given instructions and orders."
