During the latest leadership hustings at the Cheltenham racecourse, few among the present electorate appeared pleased by either of the two runners seeking to become the next UK PM.

According to the Observer's report, neither foreign secretary Liz Truss nor ex-chancellor Rishi Sunak, appeared to be heavily backed. Some of those who went, and who would decide the future prime minister's identity, claimed they attended the hustings out of duty, and that they hoped to select the worse alternative to avoid the worst.

One attendant who preferred to remain anonymous said, prior to the beginning of the proceedings, that he preferred “Neither of the above,” adding that “I’m afraid we just don’t get the quality of people coming into politics these days.”

If any of the numerous party members questioned by the Observer had pre-hustings preferences, at best, they were hesitant and susceptible to change. People were there to learn and hear more, not to have their views reaffirmed.

Following the proceedings, many opinions changed. Some that were hesitant about their decision had made up their mind regarding one contender or the other. Similarly, some that had their minds set on one of the contenders had a change of heart and had shifted allegiances, while others had just hardened their attitudes in the direction they were already going.

Unlike what was publicly being discussed, the Observer interviews ahead of and post-hustings showed that the conservative decision was not unanimous nor even shifting towards one candidate more than another.

However, according to Tory membership polls this weekend, with less than three weeks till the election, Truss is far ahead of Sunak.

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Conducted for the Observer, Sunday's Opinium poll of 570 Conservative members gave Truss a 22-point edge. Sunak landed 39% of preferred votes, while Truss had 61%. Although it did not seem that way on Thursday night, around 47% believe they know who they will vote for. This might be due to the fact that individuals who attend formal hustings are, by definition, persons who are still susceptible to being persuaded. 

The lack of eagerness for either Truss or Sunak among those who must pick the next leader of the party and nation after September 5 is possibly the most fascinating aspect of the Observer’s new survey. This lack of eagerness is clear when individuals with a vote in the election are given the option of voting for Truss or Sunak, rather than the notional option of Johnson remaining leader and prime minister.

When asked whether they would prefer PM Boris Johnson or Truss in No 10, 63% of Conservative members said they would prefer Johnson, while just 22% preferred Truss. When given the choice between Johnson staying on and Sunak taking over, 68% choose Johnson and only 19% choose Sunak.

According to Chris Curtis of Opinium, sellers' remorse is coming in for Johnson as he argued that “It may be that people have forgotten how terrible things became, or that there is a lack of demand for the alternatives.”

But it's hardly encouraging for the potential winner to know that triple the number of their own party's voters preferred outgoing PM Johnson to battle for a fifth consecutive Tory victory in the next general election. Inside the Cheltenham hustings, there was equal support for Truss and Sunak. But there was a lot of ambiguity, and many people were disappointed.

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