United States President Donald Trump is hosting the leaders of the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) and Rwanda in Washington on Thursday to sign a series of new agreements aimed at stabilizing eastern Congo and opening the door for expanded Western investment in one of the world’s most mineral-rich and conflict-scarred regions.

Rwandan President Paul Kagame and Congolese President Felix Tshisekedi are expected to reaffirm two major commitments: an economic integration compact, which was finalized last month, and a US-mediated peace agreement reached in June.

That deal, backed heavily by the Trump administration, has yet to be implemented on the ground, with violence continuing to surge across eastern Congo.

The meeting comes as Trump seeks to project diplomatic success after a year of mixed foreign-policy outcomes, including a fragile ceasefire in Gaza, which is continuously violated by the Israeli regime, and rising costs at home due to his tariff policy.

A peace deal still on paper

Despite the high-level optics, officials and analysts say the US effort has so far only paused escalation rather than resolved the structural causes of the conflict.

The M23 rebel movement, widely believed by the United Nations and multiple governments to receive military support from Rwanda, seized the two largest cities in eastern Congo earlier this year in a rapid offensive that fueled fears of a wider regional war.

The group controls significant territory and remains excluded from the Washington meetings.

“M23 is not party to any agreement between Congo and Rwanda,” Congolese government spokesperson Patrick Muyaya said in Washington on Wednesday, accusing the rebels of violating last month’s ceasefire renewal and calling the latest clashes “proof that Rwanda doesn’t want peace.”

Rwanda denies backing the group. Kigali argues that its forces intervene only to counter the Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda (FDLR), which includes fighters linked to the 1994 genocide. However, a panel of UN experts reported in July that Rwanda exercises “command and control” over M23 operations.

Jason Stearns, a regional analyst at Simon Fraser University, said US diplomacy has “put a pin in the conflict so it doesn’t continue to escalate,” but stressed that “core issues have not been resolved. And it doesn’t look like they’re getting much closer.”

Read more: Donald Trump’s record on ending wars: Fact vs. claim

Humanitarian crisis and competing narratives

The conflict in eastern Congo is rooted in three decades of ethnic and political tensions tied to the aftermath of the Rwandan genocide, the presence of dozens of armed groups, and unresolved disputes over land, identity, and citizenship.

Millions were killed in two regional wars between 1996 and 2003. Today, thousands have been killed in the latest cycle of fighting, and hundreds of thousands have been displaced, many fleeing renewed battles around M23-held areas in North Kivu.

Ceasefire violations have continued even as leaders arrive in Washington. Congo’s military and M23 issued dueling statements on Tuesday, accusing each other of breaking the latest truce.

Without M23’s inclusion or a credible mechanism to enforce commitments, diplomats acknowledge that Thursday’s signatures may do little to improve conditions on the ground.

Mineral wealth at the center of US strategy

Eastern Congo contains some of the world’s richest deposits of cobalt, lithium, gold, tungsten, tin, and other minerals essential for global electronics and electric-vehicle supply chains. With China leading global processing and trade in critical minerals, Washington has intensified efforts to secure alternative sources.

The Trump administration’s economic integration plan envisions billions of dollars in Western investment across Congo and Rwanda, contingent on security improvements.

Under the June agreement:

• Congo must act against the anti-Rwandan FDLR militia.
• Rwanda must withdraw its forces from Congolese territory.

Rwandan Foreign Minister Olivier Nduhungirehe told Reuters he hopes that Thursday’s ceremony “will see improvement on the ground,” but neither side has yet met its obligations.

Read more: Congo President Tshisekedi accuses Rwanda of delaying peace efforts