A key committee in the Turkish parliament granted approval on Tuesday for Sweden's NATO membership bid, overcoming months of delays. The process faced obstacles, primarily from Turkey and Hungary.

President Recep Tayyip Erdogan recently connected Sweden's bid to Ankara's request for F-16 fighter jets from the United States. The decision comes as Sweden and Finland abandoned their longstanding military non-alignment and pursued NATO membership following the beginning of the war in Ukraine in February 2022.

The NATO membership bids of Sweden and Finland received swift approval from all NATO members, excluding Turkey and Hungary. Despite initial reluctance, Turkey and Hungary eventually acquiesced, and Finland became NATO's 31st member in April.

As of now, Turkey and Hungary are the only remaining NATO members yet to ratify Sweden's bid, 19 months after its initial application. The Foreign Affairs Committee of the Turkish Parliament endorsed the measure on Tuesday.

"The protocol (on Sweden's NATO accession) passed the committee," opposition CHP party lawmaker Utku Cakirozer, a member of the Committee, said, as quoted by AFP after the vote.

The approval by the foreign affairs committee opens the path for a vote in the full parliament, where Erdogan's ruling alliance has the majority. The timing of the full parliament vote is not immediately clear. Erdogan withdrew his objections to Sweden's NATO membership in July, following measures taken by Stockholm against Kurdish groups labeled as "terrorists" by Ankara. NATO allies, particularly France, have emphasized the importance of Turkey's cooperation, stating that the credibility of the alliance is "at stake".

The big picture

In December, Erdogan had tied Sweden's NATO membership to the condition that the US Congress agrees to sell F-16 fighter jets to Turkey. Additionally, he called for the removal of arms embargoes imposed on Ankara by NATO allies, including Canada.

"Sweden's NATO membership and F-16 sales to Turkey will be handled in coordination to some extent...  because unfortunately, neither country trusts the other," Ozgur Unluhisarcikli, the Ankara office director of the US German Marshall Fund think tank, said, as quoted by AFP.

Turkey's aging airforce has faced challenges since Ankara was expelled from the US-led F-35 joint strike fighter program in 2019. The expulsion was a response to Erdogan's decision to acquire an advanced Russian missile defense system, which NATO considers a threat to operational security. While the Biden administration has pledged to proceed with the $20-billion F-16 sale, lawmakers have hindered it, citing concerns about Turkey's human rights violations and longstanding tensions with Greece.

"There is no strong consensus in the parliament on Sweden's NATO membership, nor in the US Congress on the sale of F-16s to Turkey," Unluhisarcikli said.

Erdogan's criticism of "Israel" following its ongoing aggression on Gaza has reportedly sparked concerns in Washington.

"Although the issues are not related, Turkey's statements supporting Hamas further complicated the F-16 process," Unluhisarcikli said, stating that the recent killing of Turkish soldiers by Kurdish militants over the weekend could also influence Sweden's NATO membership.

"But if Biden and Erdogan show the necessary will, we can expect the process to be concluded soon," he stressed.

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