Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman (MBS) convened a small group of local media in Riyadh for a rare off-the-record briefing in December and delivered a shocking message, according to the Wall Street Journal. During the meeting, MbS said that the UAE, Saudi Arabia's longtime ally, had "stabbed us in the back," he claimed. “They will see what I can do,” he told the group, according to people at the meeting.

A rift has developed between MBS and his former mentor, UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan (MBZ), reflecting the struggle for geopolitical and economic clout in the Middle East and global oil markets. That said, the two royals are now feuding over who calls the shots in a Middle East where the US is playing a deteriorating role, according to WSJ. 

US officials are concerned that the Gulf competition will make it more difficult to form a coherent security alliance to confront Iran, end the eight-year war on Yemen, and expand Israeli normalization agreements with Arab nations. That said, the rivalry that the US was so determined to orchestrate took a wrong turn, and the latest developments are definitely not in its favor. 

“These are two highly ambitious people who want to be key players in the region and the go-to players,” a senior Biden administration official said, adding that “On some level, they still collaborate. Now, neither seems comfortable with the other being on the same pedestal. On balance, it’s not helpful to us for them to be at each other’s throats.”

According to close sources, as per the WSJ, the once-close MBS and MBZ haven’t spoken in more than six months, people close to them said, and their private disputes have spilled out into the open. On that note, the UAE and Saudi Arabia have competing interests in Yemen, undermining efforts to reach a peace agreement in the country, while Emirati resentment of Saudi pressure to boost the global price of oil is causing new schisms in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC).

Economic competitors 

The UAE and KSA are both increasingly economic competitors.

In an effort to end the KSA's economic reliance on oil, MBS is pushing companies to move their regional headquarters to Riyadh, the capital of Saudi Arabia, from UAE's Dubai, which has become a tourist hub for Westerners. 

He's also initiating plans to establish digital hubs, attract more visitors, and build logistical hubs to contest the UAE's status as the Middle East's commercial powerhouse, according to the WSJ. MBS announced in March the establishment of a second national airline to compete with Dubai's highly regarded Emirates.

In terms of soft power, the Saudi purchase of Newcastle United, England's soccer club, in 2021, and investment in worldwide superstar players occurred at the same time as Manchester City, controlled by a senior member of Abu Dhabi's ruling family, won the English and European soccer titles.

The Saudi rapprochement, deal with Iran

A UAE official, speaking for the government, said claims of strained relations were “categorically false and lack foundation,” and a Saudi official called the idea “simply not accurate.”

As mentioned in the WSJ report, the Saudi official added that “The UAE is a close regional partner of Saudi Arabia, and our policies converge on a wide range of issues of mutual interest,” adding that the two countries work together with other Gulf neighbors on political, security, and economic coordination.

The UAE official said their “strategic partnership is based on the same objectives and vision for regional prosperity, security, and stability.” 

During his meeting with local media outlets, the Saudi leader stated that he had issued a list of requests to the UAE, according to the sources in the UAE, adding that MBS warned that if the smaller Gulf nation did not comply, Saudi Arabia was prepared to take harsh measures, similar to what it did against Qatar in 2017 when Riyadh broke diplomatic relations with it for more than three years and imposed an economic blockade with the support of Abu Dhabi. MBS warned, according to sources who were present, “It will be worse than what I did with Qatar."

MBS' step toward diplomacy, away from MBZ

Since the meeting in December, MBS took a step towards diplomacy and ended the political isolation imposed on him after the killing of journalist Jamal Khashoggi in 2018. He turned to China for assistance in mending Saudi Arabia's relations with Iran and then coordinated Syria's return to the Arab League, a process that the UAE had begun several years before, according to the WSJ. 

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MBS is also in talks with the US about formally recognizing "Israel," which the UAE did in 2020. Moreover, the Crown Prince is also leading diplomatic efforts to quash violence in Sudan, where the UAE backs the opposing side. 

MBZ privately criticized the Saudi ruler for his actions, accusing him of undermining ties between the two nations, critically pointing out MBS' relationship with Russia and its oil policies and "risky moves," in reference to the deal with Iran. 

Read next: Saudi Arabia, UAE try to lobby EU countries to restore ties with Syria

That said, the Emirati official skipped an Arab summit MBS called for, and also the Arab League’s vote in May to allow Syria back into the circle. On the other hand, MBS himself was absent when MBZ met with Arab leaders at a hastily arranged regional summit in the UAE in January.

“Tensions are rising between them, in part because MBS wants to step out from under MBZ’s shadow,” said Dina Esfandiary, a senior advisor at the International Crisis Group’s Middle East and North Africa Program, adding that “Things are going to get worse because both countries are getting more confident and assertive in their foreign policy.”

A deteriorating alliance 

The Saudis and Emiratis have considered themselves the closest of allies, yet their relationship has been strained even before the United Arab Emirates achieved independence from Britain in 1971.

Sheikh Zayed al Nahyan, the UAE's founding father, resented Saudi dominance of the Arabian peninsula, and then-Saudi King Faisal refused to acknowledge his Persian Gulf neighbor for years, seeking leverage in several territorial conflicts. The United Arab Emirates canceled plans for a unified Gulf central bank in 2009 due to its proposed site in Riyadh. There are still territorial conflicts between the two countries over oil-rich terrain.

With the simultaneous rise of MBZ and MBS, the two countries grew closer. When MBZ's half-brother, President Sheikh Khalifa bin Zayed, had a crippling stroke in 2014, the Emirati monarch became de facto ruler of his country at the age of 54. When MBS's father, King Salman, took power in 2015, MBZ began mentoring the young Saudi prince, who was just 29 years old at the time.

According to WSJ, the two men had never met before an overnight camping expedition in the vast Saudi desert. Sources that were present revealed that the outing was accompanied by trained falcons and a small entourage; the outing—roughly equal in Gulf tradition to a round of presidential golf—was a watershed moment in their friendship.

MBS sought advice from MBZ and employed some of the same banks and consultants that the Emiratis used for a similar strategy a decade earlier while developing a plan to change and open up his country. On that note, MBS and MBZ formed a foreign-policy alliance that launched the war on Yemen, assisted Egypt's Abdel Fattah Al Sisi in a coup, armed Libyan militants in the country's divided east, and boycotted Qatar.

OPEC competition, dispute

The schism erupted last October when OPEC agreed to cut output, surprising the Biden administration. The UAE agreed to the decrease but privately told US officials and the media that Saudi Arabia had forced them to do so, according to the WSJ. 

The dynamic highlighted an ongoing dispute between Saudis and Emiratis over OPEC policy, which Riyadh has long dominated as the world's top petroleum exporter, WSJ wrote, adding that the Emiratis have increased their oil-production capacity to more than four million barrels per day, with aspirations to exceed five million, but are only allowed to pump roughly three million under OPEC regulation, costing the country hundreds of billions of dollars in lost revenue.

Read next: Saudi Arabia slashes July oil output, OPEC+ extends April cut to 2024

On a more crucial point, the Emirati increase in oil production capacity presents the potential ability to move output up and down and with it global oil prices. Until recently, only Saudi Arabia wielded that sort of market power. Disagreements between the two officials are threatening to derail continuing negotiations to end the war on Yemen, which pits the Saudis, Emiratis, and a variety of Yemeni factions against the Yemeni Armed Forces.

The UAE signed a security agreement with the Saudi-backed Yemeni presidential leadership council in December, granting Abu Dhabi the authority to interfere in Yemen and the waters off its coast. Officials in Saudi Arabia saw it as a challenge to their Yemen strategy. In turn, Saudi Arabia had intentions to construct a pipeline that spreads from the kingdom to the Arabian Sea, through the Yemeni province of Hadramout. However, the plans were jeopardized by UAE-backed forces. 

Biden could lose ambitions in Gulf

The rivalry between Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates has irritated the Biden administration, which wants friendly Gulf capitals like Riyadh and Abu Dhabi to help build a united front against Iran. On critical issues such as Ukraine and China, neither MBS nor MBZ is completely aligned with Washington.

On that note, in reference to the obvious new political dynamics in the region, US authorities are growing concerned about MBZ's outreach to Beijing and Moscow, which, like MBS, has strengthened connections with them.

Biden and MBS 

Biden took office promising to treat the kingdom as a pariah state in the aftermath of the Khashoggi assassination, which MBS has stated he did not order. Instead, in July 2022, Biden visited Saudi Arabia, helping to end his isolation.

Companies in the United States who were previously unwilling to engage with the kingdom are now reconsidering. This desire is anticipated to grow as a year-end deadline approaches for companies with Saudi government contracts to establish a base in Riyadh rather than flying in from Dubai.

Read next: Biden goes home with no Saudi commitment on oil production: WSJ

The WSJ explains that according to those familiar with the case, the Biden administration arranged a meeting on May 7 between MBS and the Emirati president's younger brother, Sheikh Tahnoun bin Zayed, who was once seen as a confidant of the Saudi crown prince. Tahnoun had been frozen out, making at least six trips to the kingdom without gaining a meeting with MBS until he received assistance from the US, according to the sources.

With regard to decisions concerning Yemen, MBS told his advisors “I don’t trust them anymore,” before telling them to keep policies as is.