With less than a month before the Ukraine NATO summit 2025 in The Hague, NATO members are facing renewed tension over how to handle Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky’s participation.

While European allies push for his inclusion as a show of support, the United States, under President Donald Trump, has been hesitant.

Kiev’s presence threatens to overshadow what was expected to be a largely unified summit focused on defense spending, a priority issue for the alliance.

Trump’s White House return reshapes NATO’s stance on Kiev

Just a year ago, NATO leaders in Washington pledged support to Ukraine, promising more military assistance and reaffirming Kiev's path to membership. Since then, Trump’s return to the White House has dramatically shifted US foreign policy.

His administration’s cooling stance on Ukraine has impacted NATO's broader approach. Tensions with Zelensky, warmer signals toward Moscow, and a push for direct negotiations have all contributed to growing uncertainty around Ukraine’s role in the alliance.

Diplomats eye limited role for Zelensky at The Hague

Despite the political tension, Zelensky confirmed this week that he received an invitation from NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte.

A NATO official also told AFP, “We can confirm that Ukraine will be with us in The Hague.”

However, diplomats speaking on condition of anonymity said Zelensky may only attend a dinner hosted by the Dutch king, without formal talks. “It will be a PR disaster if he’s not there,” one European diplomat noted.

Focus shifts to defense spending compromise

To avoid disrupting unity further, NATO leaders are prioritizing a NATO defense spending agreement aimed at satisfying US demands. Trump has called for allies to commit 5% of GDP toward defense.

Officials now say the alliance is coalescing around Rutte’s compromise: 3.5% of GDP for core military spending and 1.5% for related investments like infrastructure.

“Defence spending is the most important part, and no one wants to jeopardise that,” a diplomat said.

Read more: EU delays trade retaliations ahead of NATO Summit amid Trump pressure

No NATO consensus on Ukraine membership path

In stark contrast to previous summits, there is no expectation that NATO will reaffirm Ukraine’s future membership. Trump has criticized Kiev’s aspirations and blamed its push for NATO integration as a trigger for the conflict with Russia.

Sources say the final summit communiqué is likely to remain silent on Kiev’s membership hopes, avoiding any statements that could reopen divisions among members.

“There will be nothing on that,” said a NATO diplomat. “My expectation is we will be absolutely silent.”

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NATO summit highlights deepening rift

In a sign of how far it has moved, the US has also scaled back its participation in support meetings. Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth will skip a Ukraine-focused gathering in Brussels, though he will attend the broader NATO defense ministers’ meeting.

Read more: Medvedev: Russia seeks victory, not compromise, in Ukraine peace talks