Ukraine war forcing China to rethink 'how, when' to move in on Taiwan
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CIA head, Bill Burns, claims that the war in Ukraine has 'unsettled' China and may influence its choices on the use of force against Taiwan.
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Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns
Russia's experience in Ukraine is influencing China's calculations about how and when it might decide to "invade" Taiwan, according to the CIA chief on Wednesday.
During a speech at the Aspen Security Forum, Central Intelligence Agency Director Bill Burns brushed down rumors that Chinese President Xi Jinping may move on Taiwan following a critical Communist Party meeting later this year.
“The risks of that become higher, it seems to us, the further into this decade that you get,” Burns said, adding, “I wouldn’t underestimate President Xi’s determination to assert China’s control” over self-ruling Taiwan.
Read next: China believes Taiwan using Ukrainian crisis for political manipulations
Burns said that China was “unsettled” while observing the five-month-old war in Ukraine, which he believes is a “strategic failure” for President Vladimir Putin as he had hoped to "topple the Kiev government within a week."
“Our sense is that it probably affects less the question of whether the Chinese leadership might choose some years down the road to use force to control Taiwan, but how and when they would do it,” Burns said.
Read next: China: Taiwan is 'not Ukraine'
He said that China must have "learned" from Ukraine that “you don’t achieve quick, decisive victories with underwhelming force.”
“I suspect the lesson that the Chinese leadership and military are drawing is that you’ve got to amass overwhelming force if you’re going to contemplate that in the future,” he said.
What is he trying to say?
China also has likely learned that it has to “control the information space” and “do everything you can to shore up your economy against the potential for sanctions,” he added.
Burns, echoing prior US assessments, stated that despite verbal support, the US does not believe Beijing is providing military assistance to Russia.
He stated that China has increased its purchases of Russian energy but is wary of triggering Western penalties.
Beijing prefers peace
Speaking before Burns at the forum in the Rocky Mountains, China’s Ambassador to the United States, Qin Gang, said that Beijing still preferred “peaceful reunification”.
But he accused the US of supporting “independence” forces in Taiwan, where President Tsai Ing-wen has asserted the island’s "separate identity".
“No conflict and no war is the biggest consensus between China and the United States,” Qin said. But the United States is “hollowing out and blurring” its stated policy of recognizing only Beijing, he said.
“Only by adhering strictly to the one-China policy, only by joining hands to constrain and oppose Taiwan independence, can we have a peaceful reunification,” he said.
Read next: China: US pledge to 'defend' Taiwan is 'playing with fire'
US President Joe Biden said in May that the US was ready to use force to defend Taiwan from a Chinese attack, appearing to shed the long-held US ambiguity on whether it would engage militarily, although the White House quickly withdrew its comments.
