A report by The Economist on Tuesday revealed that today, with four years remaining until the French electorate selects their next president, an unofficial competition to assume the mantle from Emmanuel Macron is quietly unfolding among both his current and former close associates.

The French constitution permits a president to serve two consecutive terms, but there's a possibility that after stepping down in 2027, when he's just 49 years old, Macron may seek re-election five years later.

Nevertheless, he remains determined to make significant changes in France and shows no signs of losing interest in the role or scaling back his ambitions. He recently pledged to continue governing "until the very end" of his current term.

However, potential successors within Macron's expansive centrist coalition are acutely mindful of two key factors: first, there isn't an obvious standout candidate among them, and second, they mustn't delay their bid if they want to distinguish themselves.

The overarching concern is to identify a credible contender capable of challenging the far-right figure Marine Le Pen, and currently, three frontrunners believe they possess the qualifications for the job.

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Gérald Darmanin

Gérald Darmanin, the interior minister known for his tough rhetoric and appointed by Macron to bolster his appeal to the right-wing electorate, is the most exuberant contender.

On August 27th, he organized a significant political gathering in the industrial city of Tourcoing, where he formerly served as mayor. While officially focused on political strategy, the event carried more than a hint of personal ambition.

To keep him in check, Prime Minister Elisabeth Borne was swiftly dispatched to oversee the proceedings.

Born to a bar owner and a housekeeper, Darmanin is positioning himself as a politician who, in contrast to the technocrats who share his cabinet, comprehends the everyday concerns of the people.

He warned that if mainstream politicians fail to connect with the working-class and middle-class electorate, Le Pen's victory in 2027 is "quite likely," outlining a job description tailored to himself.

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Edouard Philippe

Another less flashy yet equally determined contender is Edouard Philippe, formerly Macron's prime minister.

Similar to  Darmanin, he originally comes from the conservative Republican party. He currently leads the polls as the most popular French politician, boasting a 55% approval rating, which puts him 13 points ahead of Ms. Le Pen, who is in ninth place, and 18 points ahead of Darmanin in 18th place, according to Ifop, a polling organization. In comparison, Macron trails in 23rd place with a 32% approval rating.

In typical French political fashion, Philippe will mark the "rentrée," or the return to work, by releasing a new book on September 13th, in which he outlines his vision and connection to France.

After leaving the government in 2020, he established his own political movement, Horizons, which is part of Macron's minority coalition in parliament.

Additionally, Philippe serves as the mayor of Le Havre, a port city in Normandy, providing him with a convenient position to appear somewhat removed from the day-to-day politics in Paris.

Those who have recently interacted with Mr. Philippe affirm that he is actively and firmly preparing for the 2027 election.

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Other Competitors

Others too are said to be mulling over theirs, including Jean Castex, another ex-prime minister, Yaël Braun-Pivet, head of the National Assembly, or even Gabriel Attal, the 34-year-old education minister.

Each will have to tread a delicate line between the desire to remain loyal to Macron, to whom they owe their jobs, and the political need to distance themselves from the unpopular president, who has faced strikes and rioting this year.

Even if it were in his gift to anoint an heir, this might not do the anointee any favors.

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Threat of a Le Pen Presidency

While four years may seem like a substantial period, it's worth remembering that Macron himself was a relatively unknown figure years before his first presidential campaign.

Additionally, his party, Renaissance (formerly En Marche), lacks an organized process for selecting a candidate and may not even survive in its current form beyond his presidency.

However, the looming possibility of a Le Pen presidency adds significant urgency to this matter.

The hard-right leader has been patiently waiting and positioning herself as a president-in-waiting while sitting on the opposition benches.

Macron might not be eager to consider succession planning, but the most challenging legacy for a leader who has played a pivotal role in modernizing France would be to have his two-term presidency followed by her election, akin to the transition from Barack Obama to Donald Trump in the US.

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