US covertly preparing for failed Ukrainian Spring operation: Politico

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Politico
24 Apr 2023 18:03
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The Biden administration fears that the operation fails to achieve its objectives, emboldening critics at home and abroad.

Ukrainian soldiers walking in the position close to Bakhmut, Ukraine, January 2023 (AP)

The Biden administration is covertly getting prepared for a failed Ukrainian counteroffensive and its repercussions, a new report by Politico revealed.

The Biden administration fears that the operation falls short to achieve its objectives, causing resentment among both sides, whether those in support of a prolonged war or those who are calling for a settlement, the report added, citing unnamed top US officials.

One side would accuse the US of failing to provide Kiev with longer-range missiles, fighter jets, and additional air defenses, while the other would say that doing so, i.e. the provision of arms, was to no avail, the report pointed out.

The report further recalled that US officials have warned Ukraine about the repercussions of overextending its aspirations and stressing its troops — the same warning the Biden administration delivered to the former Afghan government as the Taliban made nationwide advances during the US hasty withdrawal in 2021.

Earlier this month, Ukraine's Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal said, as quoted by The Hill, that Kiev could begin a counteroffensive as late as this summer. However, US media reports claimed that the operation was planned for April 30.

Last week, a Ukrainian politician was quoted as saying that Ukraine planned for its counteroffensive in April but had been forced to delay it indefinitely due to a lack of munitions.

Pentagon leaks show Kiev faces critical shortages in munition supplies

Ukraine is facing a more difficult "uphill struggle than the Western narrative would have us believe," according to a report by UnHerd published on Wednesday.

The report cited the recent Pentagon leaks, saying that the Ukrainian army is facing massive shortages, especially in munition supplies.

Artillery ammunition is being used up by the nation's units at a breakneck rate, estimated at 7,700 shells every day, or about one shell every six seconds. This means that Kiev is outpacing Western production capacities and has forced Kiev to ration artillery usage on the battlefield.

In contrast, Russian forces are launching almost 3 times as many shells a day, estimated at 20,000.

However, the most distressful of shortages to the Ukrainian army is that of anti-air defense ammunition, particularly of Soviet-era S-300 and Buk systems which make up around 89% of Ukrainian air defenses against Russian targets.

The ammunition for these surface-to-air missile systems is produced mainly in Russia, which of course Kiev cannot access. What is even more troublesome is that NATO-supplied NASAMS and IRIS-T batteries are also critically low on supplies.

Another document examined by the news website shows that the counteroffensive planned by Ukraine in Spring is projected to fall short of its supposed objectives.

The document explains that “enduring Ukrainian deficiencies in training and munitions supplies probably will strain progress and exacerbate casualties during the offensive.”

The army is expected to be highly susceptible to air attacks, as its defense capabilities are hindered by munition shortages. This means that it will be exponentially more difficult to deploy ground forces on the frontlines as they will be subject to air raids.

Western critics seem to understand that there is little chance of a successful Ukrainian offensive in Spring, as the possibility of forcing Russian forces out of Crimea and the Donbass seems marginal.

According to Richard Haass and Charles Kupchan of Foreign Affairs, supplying Ukraine with more tools to extend the war instead of negotiating a peace deal between the warring parties is delusional.