US gunning for European support for Ukraine strategy

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US officials are concerned with keeping their allies on board with Washington's plans to counter Russia in Ukraine, amid economic pressures in Europe.

Officials based in Europe have made inside warnings to Washington colleagues that some countries with populations that support Russia are furious over sanctions, blaming the US for the rise in costs.

According to officials in recent internal reports distributed throughout the administration and seen by POLITICO, that sentiment could put pressure on European leaders to withdraw support for the sanctions.

Two senior US officials said the worries have sparked a flurry of calls among top US officials across the administration about how to keep European leaders in line with the American strategy. 

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In order for Ukraine to succeed, Washington increasingly believes that a continuous and coordinated message effort with Europe is essential and that any rift in that support might give Russia influence both on and off the battlefield.
 
Rising inflation and the high cost of heating as the weather becomes colder have sparked protests in some European cities, increasing the strain on governments to balance domestic concerns against support for Ukraine.

“The one thing that I do worry about is a rift between the United States and Europe because the United States looks better positioned on energy because we’re a major producer,” said Fiona Hill, former Russia Director of the National Security Council. “We should have been working on this transition earlier.”

The State Department declined to comment.

Halting energy shipments 

According to Max Bergmann, director of the European program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, many European capitals have switched their focus from supporting Ukraine's military to dealing with the energy crisis as a result of the draconian sanctions on Russia resulting in the Kremlin's decision to halt energy shipments.

European Union countries are “really struggling with how to handle the energy crisis and are throwing Covid-style relief packages together to get the public through the winter,” he said.

Some officials are confident that support from Europe and other allies will continue. “When it comes to the decisions of the governments, I see unwavering support” for Ukraine, a NATO official told reporters this week.

Concerns expressed by US officials about an alleged nuclear threat from Russia in Ukraine have led to more warnings about maintaining European assistance.

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According to US intelligence briefings that have been circulating within the administration over the past month, American officials think that Russia could rely on its nuclear deterrence forces as the country's military continues to lose territory in Ukraine. 

Moreover, Russian President Vladimir Putin is using the threat as a negotiating tactic to pressure Ukraine to make concessions on the battlefield, the two officials said.

“This is Putin engaging in nuclear blackmail,” Hill claimed. Putin “is thinking about how he can do it. Therefore we have to act to make it impossible, or to make it very clear, that he won’t get the desired effect from it. That’s why we have to be really serious about diplomacy. We have to frame it with other nuclear powers to say ‘this is impermissible.’”

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The president of Ukraine, Volodymyr Zelensky, said in a speech on Monday that he was open to "real" peace negotiations with Russia.

The United States and Russia are scheduled to resume formal discussions on nuclear inspections in accordance with the New Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty, according to State Department Spokesperson Ned Price, who spoke to reporters on Tuesday.

“We believe deeply … in the transformative power and the importance of diplomacy and dialogue,” Price said.

“When it comes to Russia, we are clear-eyed and realistic about what dialogue between the United States and Russia — what it can entail and what it can accomplish.”

The US approach will remain narrowly focused on the New START issue, according to a source familiar with the plans to speak with the Russians, as officials are wary of veering off topic at such a tense time.