US should not jeopardize its forces for Saudi Arabia, UAE: Quincy Inst

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The Saudi authorities shared intel with the United States about alleged preparations for an "imminent" attack on Saudi Arabia by Iran, a report by The Wall Street Journal said Tuesday.

According to the report, several regional countries, including the United States, have increased military alertness following the shared intelligence despite Iranian officials denying such allegations.

Following the news, US think tank Responsible Statecraft published a report stating that the claims made by the Saudis will increase the possibility of a new plight with the Islamic Republic and escalate tensions in the region, warning that Biden's administration must be wary of being duped by the Saudis into providing more military support to the kingdom. The think tank also stressed that the United States must not, under any circumstances, be lured back into a conflict in the Middle East.

According to Responsible Statecraft, the allegations shared by Saudis about an "imminent" Iranian attack came just as US-Saudi relations are witnessing a significant decline and as Congress members are pushing for retaliatory measures against Saudi Arabia (following the OPEC+ oil production cut), such as withdrawing all US forces from the kingdom and the UAE, Meanwhile, US President Joe Biden stated earlier that his administration was considering decreasing military aid to Saudi Arabia as his administration reviews its ties to the kingdom.

The report suggested that all pro-Saudi lobbyists in the US need to do is bring out the Iran scare card to put off attention to the worsening relations between the US and Saudis and diverging interests, stressing that the Saudi claims must not be taken at face value, for the Saudi government may be trying to force off its critics in Washington or twist Biden's arm to prevent him from ceasing military aid to the country.

The report argued that although Iranian officials have accused Saudi Arabia and the US of inciting the riots in the country and stirring up unrest, there are also viable grounds to be cynical of the kingdom's claims of an Iranian attack against them.

The report stated that, on one hand, the last attack carried out by forces allegedly affiliated with Iran (the Sanaa government forces) against Saudi Arabia was in 2019 when drones struck Aramco facilities in Abqaiq town East of the country. On the other hand, both the Saudi and Iranian governments have been trying since then to amend ties through Iraq-mediated dialogue and negotiations, which are still ongoing under Raisi. The Islamic Republic and the UAE also managed to restore diplomatic relations during Raisi's term, with the two having their embassies reopened.

An Iranian attack on Saudi Arabia would be a blunt diversion from the diplomatic policy pursued in the previous years, the Statecraft report stated, adding that the unrest in Iran poses a big enough challenge for the Iranian government to risk a major security escalation simultaneously.

The think tank institute called out the timing of the Saudi claims as "remarkably convenient" just as relations between Washington and Riyadh have been deteriorating following OPEC+'s decision to cut oil production, stating that the Saudis already know that among the few things that could grasp the US attention immediately is an "imminent" Iranian threat.

The report recalled that a similar event of "alarmism" took place back in 2015 during the Obama administration, which led the then-US administration to back the Saudi-led coalition war against Yemen labeling it as a "terrible error".

The think tank report explained that "Whenever the Saudi government finds itself in trouble with critics in the US because of its war crimes and human rights abuses, the government and their army of lobbyists are eager to emphasize their hostility to Iran as a reminder of why the U.S. should continue providing them with weapons and protection."

"It has worked in the past, but Americans should know by now that it leads to policies that are harmful to both U.S. interests and regional stability," the report added.

"The Trump administration used the false claim of just such an attack on U.S. forces by Iranian proxies as its initial cover story for the January 2020 assassination of Iranian general Qassem Soleimani on Iraqi soil," the institute noted, adding that Biden should reject the Saudi please in case they are pushing the US to take "pre-emptive" action against Iran.

The Statecraft report also highlighted the fact that the US administration is dealing with the same Saudi government that carried out a "hostile act" when it backed oil supply cuts, "so the idea that the US might even consider coming to their aid militarily should be a non-starter."

The report further underlined that the status quo with Riyadh did not serve the US interests, which won't be served by Washington fighting Saudi Arabia's battles for it, either.

The JCPOA negotiations with Tehran have been held back for months while the recent events in Iran had made the Biden administration less focused on proceeding with the talks, the report stated, adding that any conflict between Iran and its neighboring countries will obstruct any diplomatic solution to the nuclear issue for now.

"It seems unlikely that the nuclear deal will be restored in any case, but anyone interested in heading off a potential nuclear crisis and the attendant drumbeat for war has to hope that the US and Iran find a way to resume productive talks in the new year," the institute report stressed. 

"The Biden administration should make it clear to Saudi Arabia that the US isn’t going to resort to military action on their behalf," the paper stated, noting that the "US needs to show that it will not be roped into providing more weapons and military assistance for a client government that has proven itself so unreliable and untrustworthy."

According to the Statecraft report, the US should let the Saudis know that its choice to go against America will have repercussions on the security assistance it can obtain from Washington.

The piece further noted that the US should refrain from jeopardizing its forces for the security of KSA or UAE no matter what actions Iran takes.

Statecraft suggested that if the reports about an Iranian "imminent" attack on Saudi Arabia are credible, then this should just emphasize the urgency to withdraw US troops from the kingdom before they get "caught in the crossfire".

The Statecraft report stated that "If the Saudis are inventing or exaggerating the threat for their own purposes, that is more confirmation that their government can’t be trusted and doesn’t deserve the protection that the US has been providing them."

"Any way you slice it, the US should not be taking part in the rivalry between Iran and Saudi Arabia, and it should look to extricate itself from the region’s conflicts as soon as possible," the report concluded.