The United States has issued a stark warning to Ukraine, urging it to sign a peace framework or risk losing access to critical intelligence and weapons.

According to sources familiar with the matter cited by Reuters, Washington is applying unprecedented pressure on Kiev to accept a 28-point agreement aimed at ending the nearly four-year-long war with Russia, a plan crafted under the auspices of President Donald Trump’s administration.

The proposed framework, presented to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky during a recent high-level visit by senior US military officials, would formalize Russian control over Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk and freeze current frontlines in Kherson and Zaporozhye. It would also establish a demilitarized buffer zone near Donetsk, effectively ceding more land to Russian control.

A senior US official told Reuters the document was drafted after discussions with Zelensky aide Rustem Umerov. However, Umerov denied authorizing or endorsing the terms, clarifying in a public statement that he only played a logistical role in meetings during his US visit. "Providing approval of any points is not within my authority," he stated.

Intelligence, arms as leverage

Sources told Reuters that US officials made it clear that Ukraine’s continued access to American weapons and battlefield intelligence depends on Kiev’s willingness to accept the plan, with the US pushing for a formal response from Ukraine by next Thursday.

The US delegation described the Kiev meeting as "successful", and according to the US ambassador and public affairs officials, the aim is to implement the peace terms on an "aggressive timeline".

On his part, Zelensky has responded cautiously, expressing appreciation for the US role while emphasizing the need for a deal that ensures "a real and dignified peace." In a phone call with leaders from Britain, Germany, and France, Zelensky reiterated that Ukraine was reviewing the US draft.

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Europe alarmed, excluded

European allies were not consulted on the 28-point plan, prompting frustration across the continent. EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas underscored that Europe's position hinges on a two-point plan: weaken Russia and support Ukraine.

In Berlin, officials expressed concern that the proposed terms undercut Ukrainian sovereignty and risk legitimizing aggression.

A joint statement from European leaders insisted that "nothing about Ukraine without Ukraine" remains a guiding principle for any peace settlement.

Concessions, constraints

The plan imposes strict limitations on Ukraine’s future, barring NATO membership through a constitutional amendment and capping its armed forces at 600,000 troops. NATO, under the proposal, would pledge never to station troops on Ukrainian soil. In return, Ukraine would receive "security guarantees", with an enforcement mechanism that has not been outlined yet.

Sanctions relief for Russia is built into the plan, whereby frozen Russian assets would be partially used for Ukraine's reconstruction, but Washington would claim a share of the investment returns. Additionally, Moscow would be offered reintegration into the G8 and long-term economic cooperation deals.

Kremlin response, military context

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Russia had not officially received the US proposal but welcomed any movement toward what he called a "responsible decision" from Kiev. On the battlefield, Russian forces have recently claimed advances in Kupyansk and Pokrovsk, gains denied by Ukrainian officials but acknowledged as part of ongoing pressure along a 1,200-km front.

Inside Ukraine, the government faces internal strain, including recent ministerial dismissals amid corruption scandals, and growing frustration with Western political maneuvering that could sideline Ukrainian sovereignty.

US domestic, strategic shifts

White House Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed that the plan was devised over the past month by Secretary of State Marco Rubio and special envoy Steve Witkoff in a manner that "reflects the battlefield realities and seeks a win-win path."

The Trump administration’s decision to use intelligence sharing as a bargaining chip has reshaped the war's trajectory. Earlier this year, Washington temporarily suspended intelligence flows to Ukraine, with immediate consequences.

Analysts say the potential long-term withdrawal could be "catastrophic" for Kiev’s defense capabilities, particularly for real-time targeting, missile defense, and situational awareness.

The plan’s critics, including some US lawmakers, have likened it to the 1938 Munich Agreement, arguing that it prioritizes appeasement over justice. Others warn that the vague guarantees and territorial concessions could invite future conflict, rather than deter it.