US to be flanked by India and China in a G-3 int'l order?

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: TomDispatch
22 May 2023 22:38

The report explains that the coalescing of this international order is hastened by the war in Ukraine, and then unpacks why and how this tripolar global order, dubbed as the G-3.

Indian and Chinese national flags flutter side by side at the Raisina hills in New Delhi, India (2018)

Back in 2008, former Undersecretary of Treasury C. Fred Bergsten, foreseeing the unsustainable nature of US unipolarity said that "the basic idea would be to develop a G-2 between the United States and China to steer the global governance process."

Michael Klare builds on the same premise of unsustainable US unipolarity: arguing that the international regime would see the US flanked by both China and India in matters of global governance, in a report for TomDispatch.

The report explains that the coalescing of this international order is hastened by the war in Ukraine, and then unpacks why and how this tripolar global order, dubbed as the G-3 by Klare, would manifest.

How is Ukraine significant to the G-3 international order?

The initiation of the Russian special-military operation did away with the Pax Americana (i.e. American Peace) international regime which had persisted since the end of the cold war. The war has been the most blatant evidence of the decay of the Pax Americana which was conditioned upon the US's disproportionate economic and military superior capacity to deter any military adventurism.

Klare argues that the war in Ukraine is the most immediate antecedent of the G-3: not because it marks the end of the Pax Americana but also because it brings India and China to the forefront. Despite the steady progress which the Russian forces have been making in Ukraine, the dragging conflict shows that neither Russia nor the US was capable of resolving the conflict and realizing a satisfactory outcome thus bringing the other major powers to the forefront.

China and India have been significant actors in the geopolitical contortions of the war: neither adopting the Western track to isolate Russia, while still trying to resolve the conflict.

Klare argues that "despite determined efforts by Washington and its NATO allies to limit Russia’s access to the global economy, Moscow has largely succeeded in keeping itself afloat" thanks to China and Russia.

Why would the G-3 preside over the international order?

The Writer argues that regardless of the outcome of the war in Ukraine, China and India will be major actors in its resolution which would define the future world order in accord with their stakes and interests.

China and India are the most capable global powers to share global governance with the US for a set of factors: demographic, economic, and military, Klare contends.

China, India, and the United States have the world's largest populations according to statistics done in 2022. China has the world's largest population, India has the world's second-largest population, and the US has the world's third-largest population. The three countries are expected to remain the most populous until 2050.

Economically, the US and China have long ranked first and second alternatively. Currently, India has been in sixth place lagging behind Japan, Germany, and the United Kingdom however it is projected to overtake the UK this year, and is even expected to excel to third rank by 2030.

"Together, the G-3 will then account for a greater share of global economic activity than the next 20 countries combined, including all the European economies and Japan. Consider that a form of power no one will be able to ignore," the report reads.

Militarily, the US and China also rank first and second as the countries employing the world's largest (US) and second largest (China) militaries. While Russia follows immediately after the two major powers, its military capacity has severely diminished in the Ukraine war, Klare contends. India correspondingly has a sizeable military with an estimated military body of 1.4 million individuals. While the Indian forces aren't as well equipped with advanced combat weapons, they are expected to develop their arsenal and modernize their armed forces.

How would the G-3 preside over the international order?

Accounting for all the aforementioned factors, it becomes clear that India enjoys a significant edge over other medium-sized powers allowing them to be grouped with global powers like China and the US.

Klare points out that while it's very likely the three countries will preside over the international order, it's not as likely they will cooperate in governing world politics.

"Competition and conflict will undoubtedly remain an enduring characteristic of their relationships, with the ties between any two of them constantly waxing and waning." the report reads.

However, a certain inference, which Klare points out, is that these three countries enjoy worldwide interests and stakes and that any future international conflict will not be overcome unless the three states coordinate to do so.