The minerals deal signed between the United States and Ukraine on Wednesday has the potential to generate significant revenue for a joint investment fund established by the two countries, which aims to support the reconstruction of Ukraine once the war with Russia comes to an end.

The untapped Ukrainian resources at the center of the deal will require years of extraction before they begin generating profits, while also carrying the risk of falling short of the substantial wealth that President Trump has repeatedly claimed they would produce, The New York Times reported.

The nine-page deal, whose text was released by Ukraine’s government on Thursday, leaves uncertainty about how it will function in practice, especially since the Trump administration had initially pushed for Kiev to repay past US military assistance using its mineral wealth, an idea that was ultimately dropped from the final agreement.

No reference to security guarantees

The agreement also appeared to deliberately leave room for the possibility of Ukraine's eventual accession to the European Union, an outcome that has so far not faced opposition from either the United States or Russia, the NYT stated.

However, the deal did not include any reference to the security guarantee that Ukraine had persistently pursued as a safeguard against Russia potentially regrouping following any future ceasefire agreement.

Linking Donald Trump to Ukraine's future trajectory

NYT's report noted that despite lingering uncertainties, the long-awaited signing of the agreement has almost certainly achieved at least one outcome that appeared highly improbable just two months earlier by effectively linking Donald Trump to Ukraine's future trajectory. 

“This agreement signals clearly to Russia that the Trump administration is committed to a peace process centered on a free, sovereign, and prosperous Ukraine over the long term,” US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said on Wednesday.

Analysts on Thursday concurred that the agreement could serve to maintain Trump's engagement with Ukraine, given his now-public stake in the country's future.

“He’s a businessman — he always does the math,” Volodymyr Fesenko, a leading Ukrainian political analyst, told the NYT, adding that “his business mindset shapes his approach to politics. So his motivation in the agreement could help maintain US interest in Ukraine. How this will work out in practice, only time will tell." 

Trump seeks strategic returns of aid through the Ukraine-US minerals deal

Trump reiterated Wednesday that the United States should see tangible returns for the more than $72 billion in military aid already sent to Ukraine since 2022. The Ukraine-US minerals deal helps deliver that by granting US firms access to Ukraine's vast reserves of strategic resources.

Ukraine, rich in natural resources such as iron, uranium, natural gas, and rare earth metals, is seen as a crucial player in diversifying global supply chains currently dominated by China.

Ukrainian Svyrydenko claimed that the agreement respects Ukrainian sovereignty. “Ukraine will determine what and where to extract,” she said, adding that all subsoil resources remain under national ownership.

She also alleged that the accord allows Washington to contribute to Ukraine's reconstruction fund and possibly provide additional military assistance, such as air defense systems, although this has not been formally confirmed by the US side.