Vienna talks could collapse soon: senior US diplomat
5 Min Read
The United States says the nuclear talks with Iran could collapse soon, but the parties to the talks are "in the ballpark" of a possible deal.
-
US President Joe Biden's special adviser on Middle East affairs Brett McGurk
The world is now "on the verge of a nuclear crisis," according to senior US diplomat Brett McGurk, President Joe Biden's point person on the Middle East.
McGurk explained his assertion by attributing it to the Iranian nuclear program advancing "even as it faced tremendous setbacks, it continues to advance."
According to the diplomat, the Iranian nuclear program is getting to a point where the breakout time, "the time at which it would have enough fissile material to be able to divert material for a weapons program," he claimed.
The diplomat's words came during an interview for Carnegie Endowment with Aaron David Miller. They came in response to a question about the fate of the negotiations on the Iran nuclear deal in Vienna.
McGurk cited former IOF chief Gadi Eizenkot, who said the former administration's withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal was a strategic mistake, adding it "led to an unshackled Iranian nuclear program."
US not a very great position under Trump
McGurk highlighted the state in which the United States was in when Biden took office from Trump, saying, "We had two dozen rockets falling on our embassy in Baghdad, we were flying B-52 bombers from the continental United States to the Middle East and back as shows of force, we had Iran enriching uranium to 20%."
He attributed the situation to the Trump administration's decision, though he clarified there was no blame-casting.
"This problem is not one that we should be having because the JCPOA [...] put a cabin on Iran's nuclear program through 2031," he noted.
When the Trump administration made the decision to withdraw from the agreement, according to McGurk, some predicted Iran would "never dare restart its nuclear program," asserting that whoever had dealt with Iran would have known otherwise.
The diplomat underlined that the world was on the verge of reaching the point of a breakout as Blinken noted that the Iranian nuclear talks would reach a culmination point soon.
"We're going to know very soon whether or not it is possible for Iranians to return to compliance with the nuclear deal on terms that we and the international community can accept," McGurk said.
The negotiations are reportedly back to where they had been at the end of last summer before the hiatus, meaning there is a chance for a deal, the diplomat asserted. However, he said there was also a pretty good chance there would not be a deal.
"We are prepared for either scenario. If there is no deal, we are prepared for that scenario," McGurk declared.
The 'less-for-less' approach
Miller asked the diplomat about the "less-for-less approach" and whether he perceived it as viable.
The less-for-less view is based on less compliance from Iran in terms of its nuclear program and less sanction removal from the West on the Islamic Republic.
McGurk said this would be a good way to buy time, but the United States is more inclined toward returning to full compliance with the JCPOA. "That is what I think gives us international community comfort that this program is not going to break out."
Departure of a senior US negotiations team member
A few days back, several news outlets reported that Richard Nephew, a senior US negotiator, was no longer on the negotiations team.
When asked about the seemingly mysterious departure, McGurk explained that it was over a post in the state department.
"Richard is going to a new position at the state department," he clarified, saying the negotiating team comprises of the intelligence community, the department of energy, and the treasury; it's a pretty large, multi-facet team.
The US blames President Raisi
When the Raisi team came back to the Vienna talks in December, McGurk claimed, "They walked in the door with all sorts of walking-back everything that had been done over the course of the summer" with the previous administration.
Tehran, the senior diplomat said, came back to the negotiation table with new proposals claiming that this happened after their currency "collapsed" and now the parties are "in the ballpark of a possible deal."
McGurk said he was not going to put odds on reaching a deal, but "there's a very good chance that these talks collapse soon, and then we're gonna shift to something else. We are ready for that."
