What is happening in Sudan?
6 Min Read
Experts tell Al Mayadeen Net that the West, alongside its regional allies, is attempting to subjugate Sudan by supporting the Rapid Support Forces in its attempted coup, adding that Egyptian mediation will be limited to military negotiations.
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A diplomatic agreement between the warring parties seems out of reach as relations between al-Burhan and Hemedti may have reached a point of no return.
Politics in Sudan have taken a drastic shift after the emergence of a major rift within Sudan’s armed forces that led to intense military clashes between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which were established as a parallel force to the army during Omar Al-Bashir's rule.
Two days prior to the fighting, the SAF led by Abdel Fattah al-Burhan warned that the country is experiencing a “dangerous juncture”, due to the RSF led by Mohammed Hamdan Dagalo deploying troops across Khartoum and other cities. Reports pointed to the unsubordinated actions of the RSF which surpassed the army’s central command.
Disputes between the two Generals led to an outbreak of violent confrontations all over Sudan, which reached central Khartoum and the Presidential Palace.
A diplomatic agreement between the warring parties seems out of reach, as relations between al-Burhan and Hemedti may have reached a point of no return while politics in Sudan will be fraught with severe competition and dissent.
What is going on in Sudan?
Muhammad Hasab al-Rasoul, a regional affairs analyst, told Al Mayadeen Net, "The conflict that occurred between the Sudanese army and the Rapid Support Forces was predictable since the [Rapid] support forces have been a tool of the Western colonial project in Sudan."
According to Al-Rasoul, the West seeks to seize authority in Sudan with the aim of subjugating Khartoum and recolonizing the country.
The analyst also pointed to the political wing of Western powers in his country, which he identified as the Forces of Freedom and Change, which along the RSF received aid and support from regional and global actors, or the "Quartet" that is comprised of Saudi Arabia, UAE, the US, and the UK.
Al-Rasoul said that the West created these groups to manage the conflict in Sudan and implement its neoliberal project.
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How does the West aim to subjugate Sudan?
According to Al-Rasoul, Western powers attempted to ensure the transfer of power to its allies and impose its project through the RSF and other groups within the Sudanese society.
The analyst believes that this plan was confronted by the social and political actors that have historically garnered popular support.
The project was thwarted since it is not based on the popular will of the Sudanese people; while the Western governments attempted to isolate the political and civil forces from the political scene which led to fierce resistance from the Sudanese people, as al-Rasoul explained.
The role of the US and UK
The expert said that the US and the UK have allied themselves with Hemedti which has led to a fierce military confrontation between the two parties and brought Sudan into fighting rather than political competition.
He also added that the future political scene in Sudan will be determined through duels between the Sudanese society and the aforementioned foreign actors.
The results of this skirmish will either produce a fully independent Sudan, guaranteeing a democratic transfer of power, or what Al-Rasoul dubbed the “external project” and its local extensions that will ensure foreign interests.
According to the analyst, Hemedti has not had public appearances since the clashes began, suggesting that he was wounded during battles.
Furthermore, Al-Rasoul clarified that during the past four years, al-Burhan has excluded himself from the political scene, as he has made hostile decisions against his potential allies and opponents alike.
The analyst believes that the military general’s professional career has come to a standstill due to his general behavior, political discourse, and his shaky positions which have made him an unreliable politician to take on the upcoming political transition in Sudan.
'Israel' in Sudan
Sudanese university professor, Dr. Muhammad Hassan Muhammad, told Al Mayadeen Net that Sudan’s position on Palestine and the Palestinian cause throughout the 30 years that preceded the revolution was one of opposition to normalization with "Israel", and the main slogan was "No negotiation, no surrender, no normalization with Israel."
The Professor pointed out that "Israel" seeks to ally itself with the Sudanese entities present in the current political scene, adding that the Islamic parties in the country stand against the role of “Israel” in Sudan.
He further stressed that Israeli ambitions in Sudan are centered around the country’s enormous wealth, its Islamic and Arab identity, and its geographical location which makes it a gateway to Africa. “Israel'' has been able to mark its presence in Sudan due to the country's eclectic political currents, adding that it may present itself in a good image; under the guise of advice and cooperation or supporting financially troubled parties.
What about the role played by Egyptian mediation?
Dr. Mohamed Hassan Mohamed explained, “In fact, during the previous period, the Egyptian role has diminished at the expense of the rising influence of several other regional states.”
Mohamed pointed to an Egyptian-organized conference that many Sudanese political parties and actors attended, which helped tip the political balance inside the country.
The university professor believes that Egypt's mediation would be confined to military negotiations, such as the exchange of prisoners and a potential ceasefire. He then added that there will be no political presence for the RSF since political mediation is out of the picture.
It is worth noting that Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi offered, yesterday, to mediate a truce between the warring parties in Sudan in hopes of resolving the current conflict.
Read more: After Tuesday truce crash, Sudan RSF agree to Wednesday 24h ceasefire.
