An analysis published in The Responsible Statecraft argues that French President Emmanuel Macron's bold rhetoric about potentially deploying French troops to Ukraine was more of a strategic maneuver than a genuine commitment to military intervention.

Back in February, Macron made headlines when he suggested the possible deployment of French troops to Ukraine. "There is no consensus today to send ground troops... but nothing should be excluded. We will do whatever it takes to ensure that Russia cannot win this war," Macron said after a meeting of European leaders in Paris.

The move was initially seen as a significant show of European leadership in support of the liberal international order. However, Macron quickly softened his stance and did not follow up with substantial military or financial support for Ukraine.

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According to writer Dylan Motin, there is more to Macron's foreign policy than merely supporting the liberal order; it reflects a blend of realpolitik and respect for France's independent interests.

"Macron also takes inspiration from former President Nicolas Sarkozy (2007-2012), who supports the need to simultaneously build up the European Union, remain in NATO, and seek rapprochement and accommodation with Russia," Motin writes.

"Macron respects the alliance with the US but also understands that France's interests do not always align with Washington's views."

However, by late 2023, French intelligence assessed that Ukraine was losing the war, influencing Macron's decision-making. Additionally, domestic political pressures, such as the European Parliament elections, impacted his stance.

Concerns over Germany's military resurgence also played a role in his foreign policy calculations. As Motin puts it, "we cannot say that [a formidable German army] worked too well for us during the last century."

"Paris could not possibly be indifferent to a reawakening Germany," he says.

Despite his rhetoric, Macron never intended to commit French troops directly to Ukraine. His statements were more about positioning France as a leader and managing internal and European dynamics. Ultimately, Macron's threat did not change Moscow's approach, and France did not escalate its involvement.

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