Why Ukraine's failure cannot be blamed on lack of air power: Telegraph
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According to Richard Kemp of the Telegraph, the fact that Kiev has not succeeded in 6 weeks means that it may never succeed.
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A member of Ukraine’s troops in Lugansk on March 11, 2022 (AFP)
According to Richard Kemp, Ukraine has had no meaningful breakthrough in its counteroffensive in the last six weeks, wondering if it will ever succeed.
Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated on Sunday, during talks with his Belarusian counterpart Alexander Lukashenko in St. Petersburg, that the Ukrainian counteroffensive has failed. According to the Russian leader, the Ukrainian armed forces had lost more than 26,000 troops during the counter-offensive.
On Friday, White House National Security Advisor, Jake Sullivan, considered that it was premature to judge the outcome of Kiev's counteroffensive, adding that while losing "significant" soldiers, Ukrainian forces still have "substantial" reserves to deploy in combat.
Kemp wrote in The Telegraph that compared to the alleged victories last year of Kherson and Kharkov, the Russian forces this time "aren't going anywhere," having mobilized their troops and prepared vast defense lines.
Kemp believes that Zelensky faces one option, which is causing him concern. Launching full frontal strikes against well-fortified locations, similar to the Western Front in World War I, where trench lines lasted from Switzerland to the sea for four years, with no decisive breakthrough. This, he notes, would leave Kiev exposed to changes in Western support, particularly if Trump were re-elected or if Europe grew tired.
Read more: West clearly disappointed with Kiev counteroffensive results: Putin
The author questions if Ukrainian troops are truly prepared to attack in this manner "militarily, politically, and financially" for months or years.
This comes as the Russian bunkers have been described as "some of the most extensive systems of military defensive works seen anywhere in the world" by the UK Ministry of Defense.
The landscape in the south, which seems to be Kiev's emphasis at present, is primarily open farmland with few protected approaches, making surprise, a vital aspect in conflict, nearly impossible, exacerbating Kiev's combat weakness.
Kemp emphasizes that Ukraine is outnumbered in every military capacity and suffers from a severe lack of armored vehicles. Many NATO-supplied tanks and infantry combat vehicles were destroyed during early probing operations, therefore, the majority of the remaining assets are being held back to minimize further casualties.
Although some in Kiev are blaming the military weakness on a lack of air assistance, citing Western partners' unwillingness to supply F-16 fighters (though Britain has already promised to train pilots), Kemp noted, however, that this would not alleviate Ukraine's urgent concerns.
Months of training and transferring jets is not the only issue as Kemp emphasizes that air power is not a "magic bullet".
Mark Milley has previously stated that Russia has "1,000 fourth-generation fighters. If you’re going to contest Russia in the air, you’re going to need a substantial amount of fourth and fifth-generation fighters.”
The author concludes that the potential of Ukraine to make a comeback is dependent on its capacity to launch frontal attacks. This concept has been criticized by military strategists who rightfully espouse the merits of the "indirect approach" - attacking lines of least resistance before attacking weaker front-line fortifications. However, given Kiev's situation, Kemp details that "it does not have the privilege of philosophizing" and further expresses that a focus on "grubby land warfare and not sky-high dreams" is Ukraine's only hope for victory.
On his part, Ukrainian General Sergey Krivonos stated that Russian forces have a greater advantage in the war than Ukrainian forces since they possess much more sophisticated combat equipment.
In an interview for PryamiyTV, Krivonos admitted that the Russian army has remarkable experience and that its state fully provides all the needs of its army, lamenting that in Ukraine, they have "major failures" in this context.
The General continued to detail that the main problem is the high level of corruption in Ukraine, causing scandals in the country almost every week, expressing that the Kiev is "wasting its already limited resources in vain."
In June, Ukraine claimed its forces were moving along in its counteroffensive but were battling to counter Russian air and artillery power, which was impeding their advances in the east and south.
