Xi’s outreach sparks India-China rapprochement amid US tensions

By Al Mayadeen English
Source: Bloomberg
Today 13:40

India and China are moving to ease border tensions, resume flights, and expand trade, as Modi prepares for his first visit to China in seven years.

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Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, left, and Chinese President Xi Jinping wave to journalists prior to their meeting in Xian, Shaanxi province, China, Thursday, May 14, 2015 (AP)

In March, as US President Donald Trump escalated his trade war with China, Beijing quietly reached out to India. President Xi Jinping sent a letter to India’s largely ceremonial President Droupadi Murmu to test the waters for improved bilateral relations, Bloomberg reported, citing an Indian official familiar with the matter.

The letter expressed concern over potential US deals harming China’s interests and identified a provincial official to guide Beijing’s engagement, with the message passed along to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, as per the report.

It was only in June that the Modi government began a serious push to improve ties with China, amid rising tensions over contentious trade talks with the US and Trump’s claims of brokering a ceasefire between India and Pakistan after four days of fighting in May.

Rapid acceleration of ties

By August, the thaw in relations had accelerated. Both countries, motivated in part by Trump’s tariffs, agreed to intensify efforts to resolve long-standing border disputes dating back to colonial times. Modi is now set to make his first visit to China in seven years.

“Trump is indeed the great peacemaker, he deserves all the credit for stimulating the incipient rapprochement between Delhi and Beijing,” Ashley Tellis, senior fellow at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, said ironically, noting that US pressure inadvertently pushed India toward China.

Modi had been exploring ways to reduce tensions quietly since early 2024. With an election looming, his officials argued that improving ties with China could benefit the economy while lowering costs for troops stationed along the 3,488-kilometer unmarked border.

National Security Advisor Ajit Doval has been central to the engagement, traveling to China in December 2024 and again in June 2025 for border talks. In July, External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar met Chinese counterpart Wang Yi, urging Beijing to avoid “restrictive trade measures and roadblocks.” In response, China assured India of fertilizer and rare earth supplies.

Incremental progress in trade, connectivity

Recent weeks have brought steady progress toward normalization: direct flights are expected to resume next month, Beijing has eased curbs on urea exports, and India has granted tourist visas for Chinese nationals after years of restrictions. Indian conglomerates, such as the Adani Group, Reliance Industries, and JSW, are exploring joint ventures with Chinese firms, particularly in clean energy and battery manufacturing.

Modi and Xi are scheduled to meet on September 1 at the Shanghai Cooperation Organization summit in Tianjin. Historical encounters, such as the 2017 G20 summit in Hamburg, where Modi personally helped resolve a border standoff at Doklam with Xi, highlight the Indian leader’s status as one of Xi’s most frequent interlocutors outside of Russia’s Vladimir Putin.

China’s slowing economy, marked by deflation and industrial overcapacity, faces rising protectionism in the US and Europe. India, with its youth-heavy population, represents a potential growth market. Indian officials are also seeking Chinese investment to help achieve Modi’s target of making manufacturing 25% of GDP.

“The economic possibilities are huge if the two countries can settle differences and build trust,” said Antara Ghosal Singh, a fellow at the Observer Research Foundation. She told Bloomberg that Trump’s policies served as a catalyst for India and China to reconsider their options.