Yemeni Armed Forces have 'upper hand' over US in Red Sea
4 Min Read
Michael Horton writes in Responsible Statecraft that Ansar Allah has largely achieved its objectives through recurring attacks in the Red Sea.
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The USS Carney in the Mediterranean Sea on November 12, 2018 (AP)
According to an analysis by Michael Horton in Responsible Statecraft, the Yemeni Armed Forces (YAF) attacks in the Red Sea are not only "creating a global shipping crisis" but are also "paying hefty political and even strategic dividends" for the Yemenis.
Around a week has passed since the Pentagon announced the launching of Operation Prosperity Guardian, which will include contributions from 20 nations. However, it continues to be haunted by the reluctant participation of its members and uncertainty behind the operation's objectives.
Additionally, the leader of the Ansar Allah movement, Sayyed Abdul-Malik al-Houthi, warned the US on December 20 against attacking Yemen, stressing that American battleships and vessels would become a target for Yemeni missiles in the event of any attack.
Support has grown in Yemen and other Muslim countries as many now see that Ansar Allah is "standing against Israeli aggression."
Yemeni sources told Horton that not only are Yemeni citizens rushing to join Ansar Allah, but numerous Yemeni businesses and citizens are also contributing to the effort financially, which increases the regional power of the YAF.
Horton notes that despite the hefty price the Yemeni people will pay due to Yemeni import disruptions, they are still "hardwired for resilience and adaptability."
He recalls their numerous years of war and how it further aided their war-fighting capabilities. This is in addition to their acquisition of various weapons originally brought into the country via Saudi Arabia and the UAE.
He argues that they have tight control over their arsenals, weapons manufacturing sites, government departments, and Yemen's rising economic empire. Northwest Yemen has never had a more efficient administration than the one currently in power.
The author explains that while the US and its allies focus on costly "defensive measures", Ansar Allah has "factories, many of which are located in hard-to-target dense urban areas, which can manufacture — supplies permitting—dozens to hundreds of low-end drones per week."
Masters of asymmetric warfare
While all of their drones and missiles are built in Yemen, the author reveals that they are focused on tweaking and adapting Iranian designs for missiles and drones to meet their specific needs. Horton adds that all this taken into consideration, Ansar Allah has only used a fraction of its drones and has not yet used its more advanced longer-range missiles.
Horton expresses that while the US and its friends have enough power to repel the YAF in the short term, he believes such a campaign will need to be sustained for months and be extremely costly to everyone involved. He notes that Ansar Allah are "masters of asymmetric warfare," emphasizing that the group will respond to attacks by possibly targeting Saudi and UAE energy infrastructure, which is one of the reasons why Saudi Arabia did not join the maritime coalition.
While US and coalition warships would most certainly be able to protect themselves, commercial shipping, particularly tankers, will become increasingly susceptible. Many multinational maritime corporations have already been essentially shut out of Bab al-Mandeb, and higher-intensity confrontations could mean Red Sea traffic is reduced, if not completely halted for months.
The author admits that the Yemeni Armed Forces "largely achieved their objectives" of harming "Israel" and its allies economically, as well as showing off their regional reach and increasing support within Yemen.
He believes that the US has "no good options" when it comes to their response apart from actively putting an end to "Israel's unrelenting offensive in Gaza."
In a post on his account on X, Mohammad Ali al-Houthi said that US warships are fighting shadows and foolishly threatening international navigation to demonstrate their compliance in protecting Israeli vessels, enabling the occupying Israeli entity to continue committing crimes and massacres against the people of Gaza without any hindrance.
