Chinese scientists have conducted a simulation exploring how to jam Elon Musk’s Starlink satellite constellation across an area the size of Taiwan, offering insight into possible wartime applications of drone-based electronic warfare.

Russia’s special military operation in Ukraine, launched in February 2022, highlighted the strategic role of satellite networks in maintaining communications in conflict zones. In the early days of the operation, Elon Musk’s Starlink terminals helped restore connectivity for Ukrainian forces, complicating Moscow’s attempts to disable Kiev’s command and control infrastructure.

Despite persistent jamming attempts by Russian forces, Starlink reportedly updated its systems in real time to maintain service. In 2023, Musk stated that SpaceX was "spending significant resources to combat Russian jamming attempts."

China begins simulation testing

Drawing lessons from the Ukraine conflict, Chinese scientists have turned their attention to the challenge of disrupting similar satellite-based systems. A new study from the Beijing Institute of Technology, a research institution closely tied to China’s defense programs, models how the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) could jam Starlink satellites over Taiwan.

The simulation centers on a constellation of more than 10,000 satellites that operate in shifting orbital planes and adapt their signals in real time, making them difficult to target with conventional electronic warfare methods.

According to the study, jamming the Starlink satellite constellation over Taiwan would require an unconventional approach. Researchers proposed using between 1,000 and 2,000 signal-jamming drones, deployed in coordinated swarms, to overcome the network's resilience.

Unlike traditional ground-based jamming systems, this distributed, airborne strategy offers the flexibility to adapt to the Starlink system’s constantly shifting satellite positions and frequencies.

Success found in swarm-based strategy 

The study outlines the inherent difficulty in jamming Starlink due to its rapidly moving satellites and dynamic connectivity. Ground terminals do not stay connected to a single satellite; instead, they shift between multiple satellites in a constantly evolving communication mesh.

As the researchers explain, “The orbital planes of Starlink are not fixed, and the movement trajectories of the constellation are highly complex, with the number of satellites entering the visible area constantly changing.”

If a connection is disrupted, the system swiftly switches to another satellite, making sustained interference nearly impossible through traditional means.

To address this, the Chinese scientists suggest a large-scale deployment of PLA drones, each broadcasting signal noise at different power levels. In their simulation, they found that at least 935 synchronized jamming drones would be necessary to fully suppress the Starlink network.

Such a swarm-based strategy would significantly complicate the constellation’s ability to reroute connections and could potentially overwhelm its anti-jamming defenses.

Limitations, strategic implications

While the simulation offers a conceptual framework for jamming satellite communication systems, researchers acknowledge that Starlink’s full anti-jamming capabilities remain classified. As such, the findings are preliminary and do not account for potential undisclosed countermeasures.

Nevertheless, the study reflects growing interest among Chinese scientists and military planners in confronting the challenge posed by adaptive satellite networks, especially in scenarios involving Taiwan.

China faces increased military activity near Taiwan

This comes at a time of heightened military activity surrounding Taiwan. Japan has significantly expanded its military presence in the region, conducting joint exercises with the United States and expanding missile deployments across its southwestern islands. 

Recently, and despite Chinese warnings, Tokyo decided to go ahead with missile deployments near Taiwan. 

The move forms part of a broader military buildup across Japan’s southwestern island chain, which includes upgraded long-range missile programs and expanded Self-Defense Forces infrastructure aimed at reinforcing deterrence around the Taiwan Strait.

At a press briefing on Monday, Chinese Foreign Ministry spokesperson Mao Ning said that Tokyo’s intention to place medium-range missiles on Yonaguni Island, roughly 110 kilometers from Taiwan, amounts to "a deliberate attempt to escalate regional tensions and provoke military conflict."

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