The 2024 Indian Lok Sabha election (the lower house of the parliament) is a watershed election in Indian political history as the June 4 verdict gave a humiliating mandate to Prime Minister Narendra Modi and his Hindu-nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) to control the destiny of India's 1.4 billion population for the next five years. 

Although Modi has etched his name in Indian history by securing a third consecutive term after India’s first Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru, Modi's third term could be seen as a “marriage of convenience” as ‘self-reliant’ Modi now has to rely on coalition partners, primarily the Janata Dal (United) led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar of the eastern state of Bihar and the Telugu Desam Party (TDP) led by former Chief Minister N. Chandrababu Naidu of the south-eastern state of Andhra Pradesh and several smaller parties. Notably, more than 969 million Indian electorate gave Modi's BJP just 240 seats in the 543-member Lok Sabha, far short of its parliamentary majority of 272. 

The recently concluded election results clearly suggest that hundreds of millions of common people of India have rejected the Modi-centric BJP government. This result is a reflection of the fact that the Indian public still want to be democratic citizens and not simply Modi's subjects. On June 5, The Economist wrote an editorial titled “A triumph for Indian democracy”:  “In India the world’s biggest electorate has just shown how democracy can rebuke out-of-touch elites, limit the concentration of power and change a country’s destiny.”

PM Modi who ruled India with an iron fist during his first two terms is no longer able to show his authoritarian sheen in the NDA coalition, as alliance partners are in a bargaining position to get more cabinet portfolios and demands for their respective states from the Modi 3.0 government. According to Indian political circles, the formation of the NDA coalition government has been stumbling since the beginning due to the pressure of various demands from the allies. The question that haunts Indian people now: Will PM Modi be able to maintain his absolute authority while leading a first-ever coalition government at the Centre?

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Truly speaking, Modi will not be able to present a stable government with his party’s waning strength in Parliament, even though he and his saffron party had comically and loudly  launched their election campaign with the rhyming slogan “Abki baar, 400 paar”, which means “This time, more than 400 seats”. After the completion of the current election, the NDA has a total of 293 MPs. It is indeed a shocking fact that Modi and NDA combined could not cross 300.

On 8 June, West Bengal Chief Minister and Trinamool Congress supremo Mamata Banerjee expressed doubts about the longevity of the NDA government and said, “I will be happy to see this unstable and weak government at the Center out of power”, according to several Indian media reports.

It is worth noting that the Congress Party-led Indian National Developmental Inclusive Alliance, known as the INDIA Bloc, a united forum of 26 opposition parties, has emerged as a strong opposition party with 234 seats in the 18th Lok Sabha Election. Even if the NDA forms the government for the time being, there will be intense conflict and tension between the BJP and its allies over the allocation of ministries and portfolios. There is doubt as to how much the BJP will listen to the multiple policy positions of the coalition partners. As such, several NDA leaders and MPs have kept the door open for talks with the INDIA Block. So the strategic INDIA Block is waiting for the “honeymoon period” of the NDA government to end. More importantly, a strong opposition INDIA Block will curb the BJP's efforts to politically capitalize on its Hindu majoritarian agenda across the country.

On June 7, after being unanimously anointed as the leader of the BJP and the NDA, Modi said in his one hour and 12 minute speech, “I am deeply honored that you have unanimously chosen me as the leader of the NDA. You have entrusted me with a new responsibility, and I am extremely grateful to all of you…In the past 10 years, we have tried to move forward with the same legacy, the same values of NDA and to take the country forward.” The irony is that it was Modi who repeatedly boasted of “Modi government” and “Modi's guarantee” in his election campaign, never once mentioning his name, not even BJP's name but the coalition government's “guarantee” at the NDA parliamentary party meeting on June 7. The patchy situation of authoritarian Modi reminds us of the old adage that “Little birds may peck a dead lion”.

However, Modi was sworn in as Prime Minister for a third straight term at 7.24 pm on 9 June at the Rashtrapati Bhavan under the administration of President Droupadi Murmu. As per media reports, several regional dignitaries such as Bangladesh Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, Prime Minister of Nepal Pushpa Kamal Dahal, Prime Minister of Mauritius Pravind Kumar Jugnauth, Prime Minister of Bhutan Tshering Tobgay, President of Sri Lanka Ranil Wickremesinghe, President of Maldives Mohamed Muizzu, and Vice-President of Seychelles Ahmed Afif attended Modi's swearing-in ceremony. Several world leaders including US President Joe Biden, British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and Chinese President Xi Jinping had congratulated PM Modi on his election victory. 

Modi and his party must keep in mind that the opposition INDIA Bloc will jump in to form the government at any sign of a cleavage in the NDA alliance. Above all, the awakened masses of India will not delay in ousting the fascist or dictatorial government of the country.