Future of Sino-German Ties Post Merkel

For the past two decades, the world has been witnessing a slow and steady shift in global politics. The US’s influence is seen to be waning at the same time China’s rise is also unfolding, analysts thought these changes were akin to the movement of the tectonics. However the same analysts are now rushing to the drawing board as the Trump presidency, the US’s dismal handling of the COVID-19 pandemic coupled with the US’s failure in Afghanistan all have made analysts anxious. For the past 16 years, one global leader has been steadily observing this entire scenario unfold, while others have come and gone. German Chancellor Angela Merkel is currently in her fourth term as Chancellor Germany, she assumed the Chancellorship for the first time in 2005 since then, she has dealt with five UK prime ministers, four French presidents, seven Italian prime ministers, and four American Presidents.

Germany is and has been the leading country within the EU, making Merkel a de facto leading voice within the EU which has played the role of a sage in global politics. With a world that is shifting from a unipolar structure to a multipolar power structure, future EU leaderships will have their hands full. Merkel lead the EU and Germany alike by not taking rash decisions and by ensuring stability, during her time in office, Merkel has dealt with multiple crises: the global financial crisis of 2008 followed by the European debt, and the refugee crisis resolved by throwing open Germany's doors to those fleeing the civil war in Syria, handling the Brexit issue, and now the COVID-19 pandemic; throughout this time Merkel has kept a handle on things. Corinna Hörst, senior fellow and deputy director at the German Marshall Fund in Brussels, described Merkel as a leader of a new breed, Hörst stated "She exudes empathy, stability, and reliability." and added, "That's unique and it has redefined, in some ways, what people are looking for in a leader, because it's so opposed to any of the sort of male stereotypes that we had."

Merkel’s era pushed Sino-German relations to New Highs as German exports tripled during her leadership. The Port of Hamburg is one of Europe's biggest hubs for trade with China. In 2020, more than 2.4 million standard containers were handled in Germany's largest seaport, to and from China. Nearly one-third of all containers passing through the Port of Hamburg have China as their destination or origin. According to the German Federal Statistical Office, Germany's foreign trade with China increased by 3% year-on-year last despite the COVID-19 impact, with goods worth 212.1 billion euros ($257.3 billion) traded between China and Germany. China was Germany's most important trading partner in 2020 for the fifth consecutive year. Germany became China’s biggest trading partner more than the UK, France, and Italy. Even though containment policies have been in play for the past couple of years between China and the United States, and in light of the European increased skepticism toward China, Merkel made realistic decisions and kept up the trade with Beijing. She also received quite a lot of flak at times for her Far Eastern stance. Merkel’s opponents view her, steering Germany into a partnership with China as a stance of prioritizing the interests of German business above human rights.  Many in Germany view her policies as a separation of Germany’s economic interests from its values.

As the end of Merkel’s term is nearing, the opposing voices are also getting louder. On May 20, 2021, the European Parliament passed a resolution to freeze the ratification of the EU-China Comprehensive Agreement on Investment (CAI) in response to Chinese sanctions on European human rights advocates. In Germany these voices are also taking center stage; initial plans to allow Huawei into Germany’s 5G network have been made conditional after the passing of Germany’s new cyber security law. A survey conducted by Pew to record public opinion regarding Chinese President Xi’s leadership revealed a 9-point jump in the positive assessment of Xi’s leadership in 2020 as compared to the previous year. However, the poll also showed that younger people view China favorably but the older generations do not. This is why pressure is building within Germany’s political establishment and among an increasingly skeptical public, media, and civil society, as well as through the hardening positions of some of the country’s closest allies, for a stronger rethink.

Merkel had announced the current term to be her last back in 2018, when she said, "I will not be seeking any political post after my term ends." Merkel’s leadership of Germany is now coming to its final days, as the elections are set to take place by the end of September this year. With the change in leadership eminent, anxiousness among global political analysts is also rising, as Merkel’s pragmatism kept Germany a beacon of stability and maintained European unity in the face of trends that could undermine it. This pragmatism has actually left its mark on German politics, which is why despite mistrust of China breeding in some corridors of German politics, not all the leading candidates to succeed Angela Merkel, who will step down as German chancellor later this month, are promising a different approach on China. The next chancellor whichever party he may belong to certainly will try to alter policies owing to the rapidly changing dimensions within the world of global politics. Under Merkel’s leadership, Germany balanced the pressure to choose between China its biggest single trading partner, and the US, particularly when it comes to economic matters. Merkel had been unwavering, in her stance that the EU should have a China policy different from that of Washington DC. Merkel’s successor definitely will have the chance to do things in a different way and maybe constrained to do so by a mix of domestic and external factors. Germany’s deep economic relationship with China, and its view of Beijing as a partner on issues such as climate change, will continue to play out. This is why it can be predicted that the new leadership will take a page or two from Merkel’s book and treat China with ‘caution but engagement’.