While the current phase of the war between Lebanon and the Zionist entity began with a series of Israeli tactical victories, it is clear that the tide has turned and the initiative is on the side of Hezbollah. The recent strikes on central Tel Aviv have demonstrated that if this conflict continues to escalate, the price will be heavy for the settler entity.

Although the Israeli pager attacks and string of assassinations against Hezbollah’s senior leadership in mid-September had achieved a series of tactical victories for the Zionist Entity, it now appears that they overplayed their hand.

Lulled into a false state of comfort, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu not only opened up a new front to his war against Gaza, but has done so while draining his cabinet of any dissenting voices. What appeared to have been the Zionist regime’s first big break in the ongoing war, returning an image of power back to it in September, was quickly ruined on October 1, with Iran’s ballistic missile attack that shattered the idea of the Israeli regional dominance and seized back the strategic initiative for the Axis of Resistance. 

Up until the Israeli Premier decided to transform the Lebanese front into an open war, it had remained only a support front that sought to pressure the Zionist regime and its US backers to secure a ceasefire, ending the slaughter in the Gaza Strip. However, the Zionists couldn’t help themselves and decided to raise the stakes regionally, forcing the regional resistance forces to escalate. 

Suddenly, all that had been achieved by the Israelis over the course of two weeks was being undone and they had now decided to enter southern Lebanon on the ground. Despite the blows that were dealt against Hezbollah, the resistance proved its capacity to emerge from a decapitation strike against the majority of its senior leadership, and over a month later, it took the initiative in the ongoing war. 

The Israeli ground invasion has achieved nothing of military value, failing to even secure any villages under its control and only succeeding at blowing up civilian infrastructure, as the situation allows for its troops to steal women's underwear so that they can make perverted social media videos. The claims of defeating Hezbollah, clearing it from the south of Lebanon, and even wiping out up to 80% of its weapons reserves, are all contradicted by the events we see transpiring on the ground.

While the initial goals set forth by Netanyahu and his coalition were returning some 100,000 settlers to their settlements in the north of occupied Palestine, as they strived to simultaneously eliminate Hezbollah’s capacity to attack them from south of the Litani River, they now declare victories that not even their own brainwashed public believe. Instead of returning the settlers to northern Palestine, the very opposite has occurred, the settlements have been transformed into closed military zones and the scope of Hezbollah’s fire has expanded to include Tel Aviv and beyond. Haifa has become the subject of daily rocket bombardment, while suicide drones roamed the skies freely and hit their military targets with precision.

Despite the evident power of Hezbollah’s rocket, missile, and drone capabilities, it is important to note that the use of such weapons has been primarily reserved for military targets that fall outside of populated areas. This has been the case in the face of Israeli indiscriminate attacks throughout Lebanese territory and the direct targeting of civilians inside their homes, as well as medical workers, Lebanese army soldiers, UNIFIL forces, journalists, and emergency crews.

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However, the Hezbollah missile attack that struck central “Tel Aviv” this Monday night sent a very clear message to the Zionist Entity. Not only was a building struck directly and caused significant damage, along with casualties, but its timing was notable. As the US prepared to send its Israeli-American negotiator, Amos Hochstein, to mediate between Lebanon and the Zionists, this missile attack provided a glimpse into the future of the conflict; should it escalate. It also occurred not long after the Israelis had struck central Beirut, which indicates a tit-for-tat strategy being employed.

Therefore, the Israelis do not have many more options left in front of them. It appears that they have already played their biggest cards in Lebanon, but failed to execute a successful hit-and-run strategy that could have turned around public perception of their war efforts. In their ground war, it is clear that there is no way to victory and the further they commit to the offensive, the greater the soldier casualties will be. 

On top of this, right now they are employing a similar kind of strategy as they did in their 2014 assault on the Gaza Strip, but have refrained from launching an all-out genocidal assault on Lebanese territory. Although the scale of the bombings in Lebanon is horrifying and is blatantly targeting civilians, the Israelis have not worked to bring the nation to its knees. 

The Israeli military’s current bombing campaign is one that is designed to work in limited wars, yet there is no end in sight as things currently sit. Also, instead of Hezbollah slowing down in the pace and quality of its own missiles, rocket, and drone campaign, it is only escalating. This is not only embarrassing for the Zionist leadership, but requires some kind of distraction or solution.

Therefore, the Zionist regime can choose from four potential options: It can launch an attack that potentially opens up a third war, launch a genocide in Lebanon, find a distraction to buy some more time, or agree to a cessation of hostilities. 

All indicators suggest that Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu is purposefully eliminating any opposing voices in his own cabinet, having already dissolved the “war cabinet” and clearing the likes Benny Gantz, Gadi Eisenkot, and Yoav Gallant from decision making positions. Netanyahu is seeking political survival, which is endangered by the ending of the war. As for a stunt to buy time, this is a temporary fix that can easily be undone.

Then we come to the other two options, the first is expanding the war even further, which could be done through launching a ground invasion into southern Syria, but will then further imperil the Israelis as they step into the completely unknown. As for an attempt to drag the US into a war against Iran, this could have even more catastrophic consequences. 

A last ditch option that the Israelis could try to pursue is an all out genocidal slaughter inside Lebanon, which would undoubtedly be catastrophic. Yet, Hezbollah has demonstrated that while using missiles that are not even of its newest stock, it can strike the center of Tel Aviv with a handful of these munitions. Understanding this, in the event that the Zionist regime chooses to switch up its tactics and attempt to turn Lebanon into Gaza, it could be met with a level of destruction that exceeds what it anticipates.

Any way you spin it, the Israelis are only going to suffer bigger blows as they continue to escalate. Without a US government that is willing to stop them, they are tiptoeing into what will be unprecedented destruction inflicted against them, the likes of which will only force even more of their population to flee to whatever country they hold foreign passports in.