Provocations and ideological bias do not constitute deterrence in the Asia Pacific

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The Asia Pacific should not be a wrestling ground for geopolitical powerplay. These were the words of Chinese Foreign Ministry Spokesperson Wang Wenbin while referring to controversial doctrines being operationalized by both the United States and Japan in the South China Sea. The truth is that the region which is supposed to be the engine of global economic growth is being systematically plunged into politics of confrontation and conflict. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s meeting with President Joe Biden in Washington D.C. has exposed the Asia Pacific to undue provocations as a result of American parochialism, which does not constitute deterrence. In essence, China has every right to respond. 

Firstly, the need to ‘deter’ China is nonsensical given what has transpired. Kishida and Biden cited Beijing as a ‘mutual threat’ despite the fact that both the US and Japan have sought to undermine the ‘One China’ principle by making the subject of Taiwan an integral part of their military alliance. Furthermore, the joint statement of the US-Japan Security Consultative Committee is equally slanderous, where China’s legitimate right to initiate peaceful reunification with Taiwan is being equated with Beijing’s attempt to upset the ‘status quo’ in the region. That is not the case as Japan’s new National Security Strategy of 2022 is being actively supported by the Washington D.C. establishment and operationalized to pressurize Beijing to forgo its sovereignty and retreat from its legitimate claims. This undermines rather than reinforces deterrence in the Asia Pacific.  

If one examines the Japanese NSS of 2022 closely, then it is a massive departure from Japan’s former Pacifist stance since World War II and its renunciation of both war and aggression. The Kishida administration, however, plans to bolster Tokyo’s defense with offensive, attacking capabilities. As per its defense strategy documents, Japan would acquire counterstrike capabilities including hundreds of US-made Tomahawk cruise missiles that enable it to strike targets 1,500 miles away with an accuracy of 16 feet. Japan’s disproportionate fixation on curbing China as part of its alliance with the United States clearly suggests that its arsenal is capable of hitting China. In December 2022, Japan announced its largest military buildup since World War II by boosting its defense budget to $55 billion, or a 20% increase in its spending. This does not instill any sense of regional security and constitutes a direct threat to peace in the Asia Pacific instead. 

Additionally, the presence of cruise missiles will upset, not enforce the deterrence equation in the region. The vast majority of countries in the Asia Pacific adhere to principles of non-interference, neutrality, and respect for state sovereignty, such as Malaysia and Singapore, which enjoy amiable ties with China based on historical trade and apolitical cooperation. This is despite the fact that both countries have significant differences with Beijing over the latter’s approach in the South China Sea. However, unlike Tokyo, both sides believe in managing differences through diplomacy and dialogue in the absence of American intervention. Hence, any attempt to upset the status quo through military deployments will have an adverse impact on the freedom of navigation that both Japan and the United States purportedly claim to uphold. There are few takers for such reckless adventurism.

To witness US Nimitz aircraft carriers comprising of nuclear-powered, guided missiles and guided missile destroyers conducting what Washington D.C. claims are ‘maritime strike trainings’ in the South China Sea is not reassuring either. American military deployments can easily result in tit-for-tat reactions from Beijing as China has shown with its Shandong aircraft carrier that conducted realistic combat-oriented exercises. With American and Japanese provocations being obvious, tensions can quickly escalate amid little effort from both the Kishida and the Biden administrations to initiate dialogues to diffuse tensions with Beijing. Persistent tensions threaten deterrence stability which does not bode well for Asia Pacific security.

This is also not the first time that the United States has brandished the ‘deterrence’ card while justifying its military actions in the South China Sea. Its antagonism toward China is grounded in historical facts. In November 2022, just days after US Vice President Kamala Harris paid a trip to Manila and called for overflight in South China and pledged to launch an international campaign against China’s so-called ‘irresponsible’ behavior, a guided missile carrier, the USS Chancellorsville intruded into waters around the Spratly Islands as a violation of Chinese sovereignty. According to Chinese defense experts, the US aircraft carrier’s activities have little military significance beyond stirring up tensions and that is precisely what is happening with America’s alliance with Japan and the latter’s proclivity toward confrontation with China being obvious in 2023. 

The truth is that the presence of the United States will imperil peace in the Asia Pacific. Any mechanism for diffusing tensions has to be localized and among regional states. The region cannot become a convenient backyard for American imperialism or Washington D.C. courting allies such as Japan who then adopt offensive postures and controversial doctrines as tactics against China. False threat perceptions which are grounded in ideological bias and zero-sum mentalities will only create a Cold War theatre in the region that benefits no country. This is not what the Asia Pacific needs. 

Deterrence will slowly erode in the South China Sea unless strategic wisdom prevails.