The threat of an operation in Rafah is a bargaining chip to get hostages released
While "Israel" is attempting to pressure the Palestinian Resistance by threatening an impending invasion of Rafah in Ramadan if the captives are not released, the US is still providing it with diplomatic cover. But how long can this go on? Can the Israeli economy endure this?
"Israel's" threat of an offensive on Rafah is a bargaining chip to get its prisoners released, while the US served as a facilitator by killing once again a draft UN Security Council resolution calling for an immediate end to the fighting in Gaza.
"Israel" is prepared to launch a ground offensive in the southern Gaza city of Rafah by the time the Muslim holy month of Ramadan begins next month if the "remaining hostages are not released", Benny Gantz, a member of the Israeli war cabinet, told American Jewish leaders in Al-Quds over the weekend. He said that if, by Ramadan, the captives were not home, the ground assault on Rafah would begin.
"In response to those who assert that the cost is excessive, I say unequivocally that it is not: free the hostages, and the inhabitants of Gaza will be able to observe the sacred month of Ramadan ‘fearlessly in a peaceful manner’," He proceeded.
The Israeli official's boastful threat of an impending Holocaust in Rafah in case the captives' issue was not solved came on the heels of a similar assertion made by Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu last week. He pledged to "complete the "job" in Gaza, as the ceasefire negotiations were futile until Hamas ceased making "irrational demands." He claimed that the hostage release "could be accomplished via robust military force and difficult negotiations".
The US role in shielding 'Israel'
Just 48 hours later, following Benny Gantz's cautionary message, the United States vetoed a preliminary Security Council (SC) resolution calling for an urgent cessation of hostilities in Gaza on Tuesday, February 21, saying that Washington seeks a captive exchange agreement before any truce in Gaza.
While Washington kept on supporting "Tel Aviv" with weapons and diplomatic assistance, it used the "hostage deal" as leverage, seeking the world to keep its eye shut over "Israel's" planned atrocities in Rafah.
For the third time since the fighting began on October 7, the US veto has prevented calls for an immediate humanitarian truce in Gaza. The US has instead advocated for a temporary ceasefire that is conditioned on the release of hostages. While 13 council members out of a total of 15 supported the wording produced by Algeria, paradoxically, Britain abstained from voting.
"To vote in favor of this draft resolution is to affirm and uphold the right to life of the Palestinian people. In contrast, voting against it would be a support of the heinous acts of brutality and collective punishment meted out to them", Algeria's ambassador to the United Nations, Amar Bendjama, informed the council before the voting.
The US Ambassador to the United Nations, Linda Thomas-Greenfield, in a bid to justify the US veto, said that the draft resolution would undermine negotiations between the US, Egypt, "Israel", and Qatar to mediate a ceasefire in the conflict and release of hostages held in the Gaza Strip.
Thomas-Greenfield argued before the council ahead of the voting that the SC members should not bark up the wrong tree by demanding an immediate, unconditional ceasefire without getting Hamas to release the captives, adding that it will not be a piece of cake for achieving a durable peace, and would instead open up a can of worms between Hamas and "Israel".
The Algerian-drafted resolution that got the cold shoulder from the US did not annex the release of captives to the ceasefire. It called for a ceasefire at the drop of a hat and the release of hostages without any strings attached.
Last December, the US Secretary of Defense Lloyd Austin openly assured "Tel Aviv" that Washington would continue to support "Israel" in its war with Hamas. Speaking alongside Israeli Defence Minister Yoav Gallant in "Tel Aviv" on Monday, Austin said US support for "Israel" was "unshakeable", giving scant regard to the death toll from the Israeli assault on Gaza.
Global reaction to 'Israel's' arrogance
The world community condemned "Israel's" intentions to launch a ground operation in Rafah, as almost 1.5 million Palestinians who had been forced to leave their homes sought safety in the area and braced themselves for the worst during Ramadan. There is bitterness even in "Israel" over how the Cabinet handled the captives situation. On Saturday night, February 17, thousands of settlers gathered in "Tel Aviv" to call for fresh elections in light of Netanyahu's waning support.
The European Union (EU) has for the first time come out with severe criticism of "Tel Aviv’s" planning of a bloodbath in Rafah. Except for Hungary, all 27 EU member nations issued a warning to "Israel" on Monday, February 19, cautioning against initiating an offensive in Rafah, which they claimed would worsen the situation of 1.5 million refugees swarming the city on Gaza's southern border.
Before the EU foreign ministers meeting in Brussels, Ireland's Michael Martin stated that it would be disastrous and "unconscionable" to attack Rafah. He argued that "an immediate humanitarian pause would lead to a lasting ceasefire in Gaza. Foreign ministers from 26 member states of the European Union published the declaration, which stated that the members requested that the Israeli government refrain from taking military action in Rafah that would exacerbate the already dire humanitarian situation and impede the urgent delivery of basic services and humanitarian assistance. Hungary, a close supporter of the Israeli government, was the only nation to opt out of the meeting.
The meeting called for an unconditional release of all hostages and the resumption of the provision for humanitarian assistance, which was what all but one of them demanded in a joint statement following the negotiations.
'Israel's' economy is in shambles
According to official statistics, "Israel's" economy contracted significantly more than what was anticipated following the battle in Gaza.
The declining economic conditions in "Israel", as demonstrated by the annualized GDP decline of more than 19% during the fourth quarter of 2023, corresponded with the outbreak of hostilities on October 7. GDP was "directly affected" when the fighting started on October 7.
The Central Bureau of Statistics in "Israel" presented numbers on Monday, February 19, that surprised experts greatly. In a Bloomberg survey of analysts, the average projection was for an annualized fall of 10.5%. By year's end, the Central Bureau of Statistics reported that the war had severely reduced investment, tourism, and spending. It stated that there had been a decline of 67.8% in investments in fixed assets, particularly in residential construction, and a decline of 26.3% in private spending and 18.3% in exports. Due to a decrease in Palestinian laborers and military call-ups, the construction industry experienced a manpower shortage.
In the meantime, government spending increased by 88.1%, mostly for war-related costs and compensation for people and companies. According to leading economists, "Israel's" GDP shrank much worse than had been expected highlighting the extent of the hit from the war in Gaza. The growth forecast for the nation in 2024, according to them, "now looks likely to post one of its weakest rates on record".