It is already reported that Benjamin Netanyahu has greenlighted an Israeli operation to attack the southern city of Rafah in Gaza. Rafah, which is situated on the border between the Palestinian strip and Egypt, is the last major settlement in the strip yet to be invaded by 'Israel', and has become a gathering point for the million plus Palestinian refugees who have fled "Tel Aviv’s" wholesale and indiscriminate destruction of the strip in their self-proclaimed war of annihilation against Hamas. 

According to insider sources, the United States, amongst others, outwardly opposes an Israeli invasion of this city, with some sources such as Axios even recently going as far as describing it as a “red line.” Indeed, the US has devoted significant effort to trying to give the appearance that it is supporting “humanitarian aid” in the strip, despite having granted effectively unconditional support to 'Israel’s' invasion, and despite widespread warnings from the UN amongst others that the conditions in Gaza are facing a famine like scenario with a severe depletion of all resources.

So will the US deter 'Israel' from an operation towards Rafah? While as of Tuesday it is clear there are major negotiations going on in Washington D.C. between US and Israeli administrations, we must be mindful of the following realities which will determine the outcome. First, the United States neither has the political will, desire, or capital to seriously punish 'Israel' in any capacity, whether it desires to or not, and therefore any so-called “red line” is merely a bluff. In US domestic politics, the outcome of outright sanctions, embargos, or a cessation of support is simply impossible, and Joe Biden is absolutely not the kind of politician who would take that risk with an election looming. 

Instead, US “criticism” of 'Israel', so-called attempts at pushing aid to Gaza, amongst other things, are purely for show with the intention to deflect severe criticism at Washington for what is in effect, their unconditional backing of 'Tel Aviv' amidst the disaster inflicted upon Palestinian people than constituting any actual change in policy whatsoever. Even if one looks at the reports constituting the negotiations between Washington and 'Tel Aviv' over Rafah, the disagreement only extends as far as the question of method and the timespan than any true contemplation of “don’t do it.” 

The US simply does not want more negative publicity for the humanitarian disaster they are actively greenlighting, which undermines the moral authority of the West, and is not in any scenario, willing to exert leverage over 'Israel' and has not been willing to at any point throughout this conflict since it started. Benjamin Netanyahu has done what he wants, every time and he has very much realized Western countries do not have the guts to oppose him because support for 'Israel' has been made a supreme standard of political correctness.

In assessing what will happen next, it is also then important to assess 'Israel’s' objectives. Benjamin Netanyahu has very openly and publicly committed to a war of annihilation against Hamas which incorporates a plan of occupying the entire Gaza strip in its entirety, which he has described as a “total victory”. He perceives his domestic political standing rests upon this outcome, and is not interested in any form of peace or compromise. To this end, Netanyahu has declared repeatedly that 'Israel' will effectively control the “security” of the strip which infers nothing less than a total military occupation. He seeks to create a new status quo whereby no new Palestinian opposition or resistance can emerge, but geographically speaking that it simply not possible unless 'Israel' seizes control of the border with Egypt. 

With these two factors considered, the best-case scenario is that the US can delay the Israeli operation, or perhaps make them agree to a more limited approach, but in no circumstances whatsoever will they thwart or cease the obvious strategic priority of 'Israel' to seize, control and assumedly close the border of the Gaza strip. 'Israel' for example, may agree to a compromise “evacuation” before proceeding but this is hardly more humane because where in any instance, do these starving refugees go? Do they return to their homes in the north which have been reduced to rubble and ruins? Where there is no food, electricity, water, or anything? The US pretends to be benevolent, but there is little denying it has actively backed one of the most staggering atrocities against an entire population of the people in the modern era. What we instead see is attempts to merely stage manage this event with feeble arguing. The US has long shown its ability to crush the entire economies of countries with brutal sanctions, as it did for example, to Syria, yet it is in practice unwilling to even lift a finger to stop 'Israel’s' invasion of Gaza and the wholesale death, destruction, and famine it has brought about. If the Biden administration is concerned about America’s credibility, the damage is already done, and the outcome is very much predictable.