Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Palestinian Ministry of Health: Two were martyred in Israeli shelling that targeted a besieged house in the town of Qabatiya in Jenin
At least 68 dead in migrant shipwreck off Yemen: IOM
Trump: We want to feed the people in Gaza, we do not want them to starve.
US President Donald Trump: We will impose sanctions on Russia if it does not end the war on Ukraine.
Israeli media: Polls show that 52% oppose Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu while only 29% support him.
Israeli media: 32% of Americans still support "Israel's" war on Hamas, while 60% oppose it.
Israeli media: Core US support for "Israel" hits its lowest, while support for Palestine reaches its highest levels.
Al Mayadeen's correspondent reports martyrs, injuries in Israeli bombardment of home in Heker al-Jame area in Deir al-Balah, central Gaza.
Al-Quds Governorate: Today, the spatial division of Al-Aqsa Mosque began in a public and dangerous manner, and we warn of a religious war in the region
The Ministry of Health in Gaza: This brings the total number of victims of famine and malnutrition to 175, including 93 children

Trade by other means – East Europe war will throw global food system into chaos

  • Samuel Geddes Samuel Geddes
  • Source: Al Mayadeen
  • 11 Mar 2022 00:06
  • 1 Shares
5 Min Read

With Russia ranking in the first place as an exporter of wheat and Ukraine ranking fourth, it is expected that the military operation in Ukraine will cause major disruption in the global food supply chains.

  • x
  • Trade by other means – East Europe war will throw global food system into chaos
    Like the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine is precipitating a dramatic breakdown of global supply chains, exposing most countries to shortages not experienced in decades

The Russo-Ukraine war is creating a vast gap of food grains that Western states are certain to exploit to their advantage. 

Less than a week since the start of Moscow’s offensive, that Leninist adage about “decades happening within weeks” is sounding more apt than at any point in the last 30 years. Germany, under US pressure, has signalled its break in trade ties with Russia over the war and is rapidly building the infrastructure to receive massive shipments of liquified natural gas (LNG), though exactly from whom is not yet known. 

In a previous article I suggested that having such a crisis not already been underway, it might well have been created by planners in Washington and Western Europe. Though I can claim no direct evidence for this, the list of industries and markets from which Russian and Ukrainian exports have been removed should at least prompt the question; “who benefits?” 

The European economy is now beholden for its survival to the US and likely Arab energy exports, while much of the global south faces almost certain famine as hostilities and sanctions mean that both Ukrainian and Russian agricultural exports have disappeared from the global market overnight. Even if the guns fall silent before the week is out and Russo-Ukrainian agriculture is not decimated by a grinding war of attrition, the damage has been done. Prices of basic feed grains have shot to their highest levels in more than a decade.

Russia and Ukraine are the first and fourth largest wheat exporters in the world, claiming 17.7% and 8% of the world market respectively in 2020. By far the majority of their markets are in the Middle East, Sub-Saharan Africa and East Asia. Ukraine’s largest wheat customers are Egypt, Indonesia, the Philippines, Tunisia and Morocco. Egypt, the world’s largest wheat importer, is also Russia’s biggest customer, along with Turkey, Algeria, Sudan, Nigeria, Bangladesh, Yemen, and the UAE.  

Besides these two countries, the majority of the largest agricultural exporters are either in North America, Europe or Australasia. With the disappearance of close to a third of global supply, these western states will scramble to claim their market share from the Russo-Ukrainian void. 

On top of the evaporation of Russian energy and mineral exports, its loss of agricultural market share is too much of a commercial silver-lining to this crisis for western governments not to have had this at the back (or the front) of their minds. Faced with an impending global famine, most states will cling to the core capitalist countries in the hopes of riding out the storm. Meanwhile, western farmers, chemical manufacturers, and energy companies will be raking profits in to make up for the last two years of covid-induced depression.

As well as triggering a lack of basic cereals, the war is also causing critical shortages of inputs vital to the operation of the entire worldwide industrial food system. These include seed oils, key in eastern hemispheric countries in the baking of bread, and potash from Russia and Belarus which is crucial to the production of fertilizer, of which Russia is also the largest exporter. 

While North American and European producers will be pleased with their vastly increased market share, former Russian and Ukrainian customers turning to them for food security will feel the acute leverage that comes with relying on imports for survival. Even for those states whose food systems are less affected, the looming shortage of fertilizers and pesticides will hit their economies too. Those states that turn to North American and European crops and chemical products to plug the gap will face insurmountable pressures to further liberalize their economic models and open up to western economic penetration. 

Like the coronavirus pandemic, the war in Ukraine is precipitating a dramatic breakdown of global supply chains, exposing most countries to shortages not experienced in decades. A more long-term strategy than simply swapping import partners would be to begin building domestic agricultural industries within a given country or its immediate region, that do not rely on such wide-ranging and expensive (as well as ecologically destructive) inputs. 

The importers of the world would be well advised to get to work now, as former Soviet exporters are unlikely to return to the global market soon, if they return at all.

The sum total of these developments will bring only a temporary respite for the metropoles of the global economy. Such a profound destabilization of the international food order will almost certainly cause the fall of governments. Their replacements may be far less willing to lean on foreign food imports as the wheels continue to come off the train of globalization.    

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Mayadeen’s editorial stance.
  • Food scarcity
  • Russia
  • Russian special military operation
  • Wheat
  • Ukraine
  • Food Security
Samuel Geddes

Samuel Geddes

Journalist

Most Read

All
Given ample indications Epstein was collating sexual blackmail material on powerful figures for intelligence agencies, comments made by Mirage's cofounder to Ynet take on a chilling character. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Batoul Chamas)

Zionist spies innovate AI sexual blackmail tech

  • Analysis
  • 27 Jul 2025
The right wing love affair with Zionism has ended

The right wing love affair with Zionism has ended

  • Opinion
  • 23 Jul 2025
Beyond the United States are critical leftist perspectives which underline the reawakening of the Arab left. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab el-Hajj)

The Reawakening of the Arab Left: Amman to Tunis, new voices challenging empire and capital

  • Opinion
  • 21 Jul 2025
What is the current state of Resistance forces, after the Al-Aqsa Flood operation, the collapse of independent Syria and the ongoing attacks on Lebanon and Iran? (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab el-Hajj)

Regional Resistance after the Gaza Genocide

  • Analysis
  • 25 Jul 2025

Coverage

All
War on Iran

More from this writer

All
The leaders of Europe still seem not to have realized either the declining impact of their actions, nor the long-term negative consequences they will have for the continent. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab el-Hajj)

Europe’s addiction to sanctions is terminal

Absent a full-scale American war on the Islamic Republic, Netanyahu has set up his regime and himself for a historic humiliation. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab el-Hajj)

The clock is ticking down to 'Israel’s' capitulation

Trump’s GCC tour shows growing US dependence on petro-surplus recycling

Trump’s GCC tour shows growing US dependence on petro-surplus recycling

Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem could succeed Pope Francis, bring deeper Vatican involvement in the region

Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem could succeed Pope Francis, bring deeper Vatican involvement in the region

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS