Al Mayadeen English

  • Ar
  • Es
  • x
Al Mayadeen English

Slogan

  • News
    • Politics
    • Economy
    • Sports
    • Arts&Culture
    • Health
    • Miscellaneous
    • Technology
    • Environment
  • Articles
    • Opinion
    • Analysis
    • Blog
    • Features
  • Videos
    • NewsFeed
    • Video Features
    • Explainers
    • TV
    • Digital Series
  • Infographs
  • In Pictures
  • • LIVE
News
  • Politics
  • Economy
  • Sports
  • Arts&Culture
  • Health
  • Miscellaneous
  • Technology
  • Environment
Articles
  • Opinion
  • Analysis
  • Blog
  • Features
Videos
  • NewsFeed
  • Video Features
  • Explainers
  • TV
  • Digital Series
Infographs
In Pictures
  • Africa
  • Asia
  • Asia-Pacific
  • Europe
  • Latin America
  • MENA
  • Palestine
  • US & Canada
BREAKING
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: The Lebanese Army is continuing its investigations and will later announce any information that does not affect the confidentiality of the investigation
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: It has not yet been determined whether the detainees belong to ISIS or another organization
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: Around 10 people of different nationalities, including Lebanese nationals, were detained
Al Mayadeen's correspondent: The Lebanese army arrested a number of people in the Matn area of Mount Lebanon with possession it has not disclosed
Gaza Civil Defense spokesman: We have strong indications that there are martyrs, injuries, and trapped people in the Salah al-Din area
Gaza Civil Defense spokesman: Citizens should avoid Salah al-Din Street because anyone who approaches it is at risk of being directly targeted
Gaza Civil Defense spokesman: Reality is that there is a very limited retreat of the vehicles, with the occupation forces providing cover undeer fire up to Salah al-Din Street
Gaza Civil Defense spokesman: Claims that the Israeli occupation has withdrawn from areas in the neighborhoods of al-Zaytoun, al-Tuffah, and al-Shujaiya are false
Hamas: The two delegations stressed that any negotiations must lead to the achievement of our people's goals and aspirations, foremost among which is ending the war and the complete withdrawal of enemy forces
Hamas: A delegation from the Hamas leadership, led by the head of the leadership council, Mohammad Darwish, met with an Islamic Jihad delegation, headed by its Secretary-General, Ziyad al-Nakhalah

The clock is ticking down to 'Israel’s' capitulation

  • Samuel Geddes Samuel Geddes
  • Source: Al Mayadeen English
  • 18 Jun 2025 12:10
  • 9 Shares
5 Min Read

Samuel Geddes argues that Netanyahu has led "Israel" into a war it cannot win; as Iranian missiles continue to rain down, the countdown to "Israel’s" military and economic collapse has begun.

Listen
  • x
  • Absent a full-scale American war on the Islamic Republic, Netanyahu has set up his regime and himself for a historic humiliation. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab el-Hajj)
    Absent a full-scale American war on the Islamic Republic, Netanyahu has set up his regime and himself for a historic humiliation. (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Zeinab el-Hajj)

Netanyahu has put "Israel" in an impossible position that it cannot sustain, even with indefinite American re-supply.

It has taken Iran less than three days to fully absorb the blows struck in "Israel’s" surprise offensive against its military and nuclear infrastructure. With its balance restored, it has gone on the offense to reestablish the deterrence that collapsed over the course of the last two years.

Among the Israeli public and political elites, the initial euphoria over their fleeting successes is already giving way to a terrible realization. They are in a direct war, for the first time in 50 years, with a state that can continue the current levels of hostilities for far longer than they can.

Even the regime’s much gloated-over missile defense systems, the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow, began to fail with the first barrage of Iranian missiles, which inflicted unprecedented destruction in the heart of Tel Aviv. While still intercepting most of the projectiles fired, at least according to "Israel", the rate of depletion of interceptor missiles is exponential. At best, Tel-Aviv can sustain acceptable interception levels for a matter of weeks. This while Tehran has yet to unleash the most powerful missiles in its arsenal.

As of day four of this war, the critical power plant in the Haifa Bay area has already been struck, with the effects on operations at its largest port and northern power grid being immediate and only compounding by the hour.

The distinct focus of media coverage on the destruction in urban areas and against economic targets is hiding, but only barely, the true extent of losses inflicted on critical military infrastructure. Army and air-force bases, weapons and fuel depots, and of course "Israel’s" nuclear facilities, remain cloaked by official military censorship.

Related News

Concentration camps and the road to exile: Gaza as a laboratory of privatized genocide

Understanding Yemen 2/2: Ansar Allah values

Given the rate at which the regime is burning through its interceptor munitions, it will very soon face the reality of having to ration them, limiting their use to the defense of vital military targets, and leaving the country’s urban and economic fabric utterly exposed.

Repeated hits on the Haifa plant, or similar facilities like Orot Rabin, Rutenberg, or Eshkol, will bring down the civil power grid entirely, halting everything from weapons manufacturing to water desalination. As the missile shield depletes, airbases will be rendered inoperable (if they aren’t already) and the Israeli regime’s most potent weapon, the air force, will be unable to continue operating.

While Tel-Aviv does have its US patron to replenish its stocks, even this will not restore its capabilities to their initial level. The production of interceptors such as the Tamir and Stunner missiles is limited, even in the US, to the low thousands per year. Resupply is probable, if not inevitable, but it will be of limited use when the regime must expend thousands of such rockets per week simply to prevent nationwide devastation.

Elite opinion has begun to recognize this fact. Netanyahu’s senior security advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, has publicly noted that Tehran’s inventory of mid-to-long-range ballistic missiles is far deeper than was initially estimated. As the relative cost of successful strikes declines (fewer missiles can be fired at once with more evading interception), this allows the Iranians to sustain the current tempo of operations for months, if not longer.

Under current conditions alone, the countdown to "Israel’s" societal, economic, and military collapse can be measured in weeks, not months. The only variable that would extract Tel Aviv from the trap it laid for itself is active US involvement. Though this remains frighteningly possible, the combination of domestic opposition and the prospect of a ferocious energy-driven inflation shock makes this less appealing with each passing day.

Ultimately, absent a full-scale American war on the Islamic Republic, Netanyahu has set up his regime and himself for a historic humiliation. The ceasefire likely to end this conflict will be imposed on terms dictated by Tehran, which could include everything from the definitive end of the Gaza genocide, UN scrutiny of Israeli nuclear weapons, to large-scale sanctions relief and abolition of the snap-back mechanism expected later in the year.

Iran has undoubtedly suffered serious blows at the outset, but that was the extent of what "Israel" was capable of. The pace of events is now dictated by Ayatollah Khamenei more than anyone else, and he has at last been presented the opportunity to shatter Israeli pretensions of being the region’s “superpower.” 

The views expressed in this article are solely those of the author and do not necessarily reflect Al Mayadeen’s editorial stance.
  • United States
  • war on Iran
  • Israel
  • Israeli attack on Iran
  • Benjamin Netanyahu
  • Sayyed Ali Khamenei
  • Iran
Samuel Geddes

Samuel Geddes

Journalist

War on Iran

War on Iran

Most Read

All
How is it that the Western regimes, which claimed to support the fake revolutions of Lebanon, Libya, and Syria, waged constant war against the actual Ansar Allah-led revolution in Yemen? (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Batoul Chamas)

Understanding Yemen 1/2: The Revolution

  • Opinion
  • 30 Jun 2025
Why Netanyahu is on the ropes

Why Netanyahu is on the ropes

  • Analysis
  • 4 Jul 2025
Ukraine’s Corporate Carve-Up Collapses?

Ukraine’s Corporate Carve-Up Collapses?

  • Analysis
  • 11 Jul 2025
Africa’s top university’s ‘Gaza Resolutions’ outrages pro-'Israel' lobby

Africa’s top university’s ‘Gaza Resolutions’ outrages pro-'Israel' lobby

  • Analysis
  • 4 Jul 2025

Coverage

All
War on Iran

More from this writer

All
Trump’s GCC tour shows growing US dependence on petro-surplus recycling

Trump’s GCC tour shows growing US dependence on petro-surplus recycling

Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem could succeed Pope Francis, bring deeper Vatican involvement in the region

Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem could succeed Pope Francis, bring deeper Vatican involvement in the region

If Gazans can be allowed to return to homes which no longer exist in the northern Strip, why should returning to the sites of their own, or their elders’ original displacement be an impossibility? (Al Mayadeen English; Illustrated by Batoul Chamas)

Refugees’ return to northern Gaza sets blueprint for return to '48 territories

Trump’s apparent push for Gaza ceasefire only magnifies Biden’s wickedness

Trump’s apparent push for Gaza ceasefire only magnifies Biden’s wickedness

Al Mayadeen English

Al Mayadeen is an Arab Independent Media Satellite Channel.

All Rights Reserved

  • x
  • Privacy Policy
  • About Us
  • Contact Us
  • Authors
Android
iOS