Netanyahu has put "Israel" in an impossible position that it cannot sustain, even with indefinite American re-supply.

It has taken Iran less than three days to fully absorb the blows struck in "Israel’s" surprise offensive against its military and nuclear infrastructure. With its balance restored, it has gone on the offense to reestablish the deterrence that collapsed over the course of the last two years.

Among the Israeli public and political elites, the initial euphoria over their fleeting successes is already giving way to a terrible realization. They are in a direct war, for the first time in 50 years, with a state that can continue the current levels of hostilities for far longer than they can.

Even the regime’s much gloated-over missile defense systems, the Iron Dome, David’s Sling, and Arrow, began to fail with the first barrage of Iranian missiles, which inflicted unprecedented destruction in the heart of Tel Aviv. While still intercepting most of the projectiles fired, at least according to "Israel", the rate of depletion of interceptor missiles is exponential. At best, Tel-Aviv can sustain acceptable interception levels for a matter of weeks. This while Tehran has yet to unleash the most powerful missiles in its arsenal.

As of day four of this war, the critical power plant in the Haifa Bay area has already been struck, with the effects on operations at its largest port and northern power grid being immediate and only compounding by the hour.

The distinct focus of media coverage on the destruction in urban areas and against economic targets is hiding, but only barely, the true extent of losses inflicted on critical military infrastructure. Army and air-force bases, weapons and fuel depots, and of course "Israel’s" nuclear facilities, remain cloaked by official military censorship.

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Given the rate at which the regime is burning through its interceptor munitions, it will very soon face the reality of having to ration them, limiting their use to the defense of vital military targets, and leaving the country’s urban and economic fabric utterly exposed.

Repeated hits on the Haifa plant, or similar facilities like Orot Rabin, Rutenberg, or Eshkol, will bring down the civil power grid entirely, halting everything from weapons manufacturing to water desalination. As the missile shield depletes, airbases will be rendered inoperable (if they aren’t already) and the Israeli regime’s most potent weapon, the air force, will be unable to continue operating.

While Tel-Aviv does have its US patron to replenish its stocks, even this will not restore its capabilities to their initial level. The production of interceptors such as the Tamir and Stunner missiles is limited, even in the US, to the low thousands per year. Resupply is probable, if not inevitable, but it will be of limited use when the regime must expend thousands of such rockets per week simply to prevent nationwide devastation.

Elite opinion has begun to recognize this fact. Netanyahu’s senior security advisor, Tzachi Hanegbi, has publicly noted that Tehran’s inventory of mid-to-long-range ballistic missiles is far deeper than was initially estimated. As the relative cost of successful strikes declines (fewer missiles can be fired at once with more evading interception), this allows the Iranians to sustain the current tempo of operations for months, if not longer.

Under current conditions alone, the countdown to "Israel’s" societal, economic, and military collapse can be measured in weeks, not months. The only variable that would extract Tel Aviv from the trap it laid for itself is active US involvement. Though this remains frighteningly possible, the combination of domestic opposition and the prospect of a ferocious energy-driven inflation shock makes this less appealing with each passing day.

Ultimately, absent a full-scale American war on the Islamic Republic, Netanyahu has set up his regime and himself for a historic humiliation. The ceasefire likely to end this conflict will be imposed on terms dictated by Tehran, which could include everything from the definitive end of the Gaza genocide, UN scrutiny of Israeli nuclear weapons, to large-scale sanctions relief and abolition of the snap-back mechanism expected later in the year.

Iran has undoubtedly suffered serious blows at the outset, but that was the extent of what "Israel" was capable of. The pace of events is now dictated by Ayatollah Khamenei more than anyone else, and he has at last been presented the opportunity to shatter Israeli pretensions of being the region’s “superpower.”