As the Islamic Holy month of Ramadan approaches, the US Biden administration scrambles to find a temporary ceasefire between the Palestinian resistance in Gaza and the Zionist Entity. This sudden shift towards pressuring their Israeli allies to accept a truce is born of a fear for an escalation of unprecedented proportions.

According to a report published in Axios, the US government has given their allies in “Tel Aviv” until mid-March to find a temporary truce with the Palestinian resistance in Gaza. The article alleges that Washington has even threatened to cut off its weapons supply to the Zionist Entity if it does not comply. In recent weeks there have been various reports of frustration building within the US government and even that the American President, Joe Biden, has used explicit language in private to describe Israeli Prime Minister, Benjamin Netanyahu.

It is impossible to tell whether the numerous leaked reports, citing unnamed US officials are all true or not, and the truth of the dialogue making US-Israeli relations is hard to ascertain. However, it is clear that there is an American push for there to be at least a temporary halt to the genocidal assault on Gaza and there are many indications that a Ramadan truce may be in reach.

Before going further in this line of analysis, there is always the possibility that foreign policymakers in Washington are either too incompetent to reach a ceasefire, or that there is an active conspiracy that is being implemented to aid the Israeli regime in what could be believed to be a calculated escalation ladder. If either of these two scenarios are about to unfold, they will represent blunders in American diplomatic and military history.

Why Such A Desire To Reach A Ceasefire?

To begin with, the Israeli regime, under the direct supervision of its allies in the United States, has dramatically failed in its quest to defeat the Palestinian resistance in Gaza. After 5 months of conflict, the Israelis have little to demonstrate for their efforts to dismantle Hamas apart from a graveyard of military vehicles and a significant number of soldier casualties. It is no exaggeration to say that Gaza has become a graveyard for Israeli invaders. The tunnel system under Gaza is still intact, the military capabilities of Hamas’ al-Qassam Brigades have not been dismantled and even the smaller armed groups are still demonstrating that they are in good condition.

The Israeli military’s focus has shifted towards Gaza’s Southernmost city of Rafah, following repeated failures to locate, let alone destroy, the command and control centers of the resistance. This comes after their failure to find any semblance of victory in northern or central Gaza, despite having repeatedly spread the lie that “Hamas HQ”’s existed in Gaza City and Khan Younis; specifically, at the Shifa and Nasser Hospitals.

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Around a month has now passed since the threats concerning an Israeli invasion of Rafah began, where some 1.4 million displaced Palestinians are situated along the Egyptian border. Despite the repeated statements issued by Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, there has been no action taken beyond verbal declarations regarding a ground invasion. This can almost certainly be put down to the US Biden administration having refrained from giving the operation the go-ahead, as it is more than clear that this war is being led by Washington and not Tel Aviv. 

According to a senior United Nations aid official, some 556,000 Gazans are now one step away from famine, as the Zionist Entity’s settlers continue blocking aid deliveries to the tortured population. When we couple this with the disaster that could occur, in the event of an invasion of Rafah, the pressure will begin to mount up. The potential expulsion of even a small fraction of the 1.4 million Palestinian refugees living in tents and makeshift shelters by the invading Israeli military, forcing them into the Sinai desert in Egypt, would undoubtedly provoke international and regional outrage upon the dissemination of such images.

If such a catastrophe occurs during the Holy Month of Ramadan, the equation may also be quite a different one. Since Ramadan, in 2021, the Israeli occupation forces stationed in occupied Jerusalem have launched brutal assaults against Muslim worshippers in and around al-Aqsa Mosque, leading to clashes throughout the city. It is at this time of year that people gather, after breaking their fast, in various areas throughout occupied East Jerusalem, specifically in the Old City. The Zionist Entity has repeatedly placed great restrictions on worshippers entering the Old City and Al-Aqsa Mosque, while extremist Israeli settler groups have conducted provocative marches through the area and stormed the third holiest site in the Islamic faith.

This Ramadan, the Zionist regime has already declared that it will not allow Palestinians from the West Bank to visit al-Aqsa Mosque and sent strong warnings to Palestinians from the 1948 occupied territories to stay away. The people of occupied Jerusalem will be severely restricted also. With the genocide unfolding in Gaza, the Palestinians living in occupied Jerusalem may end up gathering to voice their frustration at Israeli occupation forces, which will undoubtably lead to clashes.

If the assault on Gaza is ongoing, or is to escalate, it will only make this situation more severe and could also lead to an escalation in the West Bank. In May 2021, repeated attacks against worshippers and residents of occupied East al-Quds led to a unified revolt launched by the Palestinians of 1948, West Bankers, and the people of occupied al-Quds. This revolt, often referred to as the ‘Unity Uprising’, came as a result of a building anger throughout the entire month of Ramadan, which culminated in the resistance in Gaza launching Operation Sword of al-Quds.

As of now, there are more Zionist forces operating inside the occupied West Bank than there are in the Gaza Strip, in many areas people are completely confined to their villages and local areas. This caging in of the population inside the West Bank, which is also collectively horrified by the genocide being carried out against their people in Gaza, could transform into an uprising at any time and attacks on al-Aqsa Mosque could be the catalyst for such an escalation.

The Hamas-led offensive, which crushed the Zionist military in the South of occupied Palestine on October 7, was entitled Al-Aqsa Flood for a very specific reason. Al-Aqsa is the red line for the Palestinian people and could serve to be a redline for other regional actors if any major attack is launched upon it. The US Biden administration understands all of this and is clearly frightened by the possibility of the situation exploding.

If we see another unity uprising, it will tear the Israeli regime apart from within and completely overwhelm it, something which the US will have no power over stopping once it is initiated. What also has to be accounted for at this point, is that the Zionist armed thugs in uniform are emotionally unstable and have demonstrated extremely violent behavior against Palestinians since the beginning of the war in October. The Zionist occupation forces’ increasingly homicidal and sadistic in their implementation of violence will only further fuel any potential revolt, turning it extremely ugly.

The current Gaza-Zionist war is rooted in Israeli attacks on al-Aqsa Mosque, especially during Ramadan. This time of year can sometimes transcend traditionally understood calculations of the conflict’s dynamics. This clearly scares the Biden administration, prompting them to undoubtedly formulate strategies to address the impending developments. Only time will to tell what will to occur over al-Aqsa Mosque.