SDF-controlled areas in northeastern Syria have recently witnessed a major escalation in Turkish air and ground operations. Turkish raids have targeted al-Qamishli, al-Hasakah, the countryside of Aleppo, and al-Raqqa, while Ankara-backed National Army factions have launched intense ground attacks on the Tishreen Dam and Qara Qozak Bridge. Their objective appears to be securing control over these areas and crossing from the western to the eastern bank of the Euphrates River. Meanwhile, the Damascus government has deployed military reinforcements to the frontline near SDF-held territories in the northeast, further complicating the situation.

While discussions continue about the deadline for the SDF to announce its dissolution and hand over its weapons to the new administration, tense negotiations are underway between the two sides, marked by frequent media exchanges. Ahmad al-Sharaa, previously (Abu Muhammad al-Julani), had said, “The Kurdish People’s Protection Units are the only ones who refuse to hand over their weapons as part of the plan to integrate the factions into the structure of the Syrian army.”

The commander of the SDF, Mazloum Abdi, responded to these accusations by saying that “Turkey is exerting pressure on the new Damascus administration to prevent it from negotiating with the SDF, despite the ongoing talks taking place between the two parties in the presence of representatives from the US, Turkey, and France."

The SDF believes that integrating its members into the Syrian army as individuals would weaken the organization, ultimately leading to its gradual dismantling. However, it is generally open to joining the Syrian army as a unified bloc, provided that its approximately 100.000 fighters remain in their areas and retain their autonomy. The same applies to the internal security forces (Asayish), with proposals suggesting their incorporation into the Damascus government’s Ministry of Interior. 

On the other hand, the new Syrian Defense Minister, Marhaf Abu Qasra, revealed that the SDF offered to hand over the oil file to the Damascus government, but the matter was rejected.

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In addition to many points of contention between the two parties, including education, security control, and the demand for Damascus authorities to access all state institutions in the eastern Euphrates in exchange for granting the Kurds cultural rights and government representation, which the SDF considers disproportionate to what it has provided over the past years, a major obstacle remains: “Damascus’ demand that the SDF hand over the prisons and camps housing ISIS members and their families."

The SDF completely rejects this demand for several reasons. First, the issue serves as a crucial bargaining chip that allows the SDF to secure significant Western support. Second, there is concern over a repeat of events in Assad-controlled provinces on the night of December 8 of last year, when prison doors were opened indiscriminately, releasing all inmates regardless of their crimes. This raises serious risks of ISIS-affiliated prisoners being freed, especially at a time when the SDF remains on high alert amid reports of the organization’s resurgence, having previously exploited the Syrian regime’s collapse to expand its territorial control.

Notably, in SDF-controlled areas, there are over 25 prisons holding more than 12,000 detainees who fought for ISIS. These detainees come from more than 55 countries with the majority being from Syria and Iraq.

Mazloum Abdi, commander of the Syrian Democratic Forces, made a historic first-of-its-kind visit to the Kurdistan Region of Iraq, where he met with its leader, Masoud Barzani. Barzani is spearheading an initiative to unite the Kurds, who remain divided between the Syrian Democratic Forces, which leads the “Autonomous Administration", and the “Kurdish National Council”, which is aligned with Barzani. The US has previously attempted to mediate such unity efforts multiple times but has so far failed to achieve a lasting consensus.

Baghdad recently hosted a visit by the Turkish Foreign Minister during which he urged Iraqi authorities to escalate their stance on the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) by reclassifying it from a banned organization to a "terrorist organization", paving the way for its elimination. He also proposed the establishment of a joint military operations room to confront the Kurdistan Workers' Party. The visit is seen as a preliminary step toward an agreement to hold future meetings in Baghdad, bringing together regional leaders from Syria, Turkiye, Iran, and representatives of the Iraqi Kurdistan Region. These discussions aim to address longstanding disputes and escalating security challenges, particularly those that have intensified since the fall of the Syrian regime.

Everyone was waiting for Trump to officially take office to clarify the US stance on the SDF. The new Secretary of State addressed this during a Senate session, stating, "The US will continue to support the SDF in the operation against ISIS. I warn against abandoning allies. One of the reasons we were able to dismantle ISIS is because the Kurds guard the prisons that hold ISIS members. We will ask Turkey not to take any hostile actions against them." This statement was a disappointment for Turkiye, which continues to seek Trump's approval for a military operation in the region. Turkiye has offered guarantees that US bases in Kurdish-controlled areas would remain untouched, but so far, Washington has not endorsed its plans.