US-China relations at stake: Analysis of the most controversial bilateral relationship
Having countries compete fiercely while also working closely may appear to be a contradiction. Competing among the world's major powers is normal. In order for humanity to achieve progress on global issues, cooperation is a critical metric for statecraft.
The US–China competition has become more intense, leading to a misdirected enmity and attempts to coerce allies and partners into siding with one side or the other. To gain an advantage and keep the other from jeopardizing their own security and wealth, both sides are working hard to optimize their positions to their advantage. It is impossible for one to succeed without the other.
The rivalry becomes more complicated because of the disparity in power. China's rise has been rapid, but it hasn't been able to match the United States' power and capability. To be a serious challenger, China does not have to match the US's power. A mistake by either side could escalate to a cold war or perhaps a hot clash if the struggle deepens. Because of US support for China's economic development in hopes of promoting political reform and democracy, an increasingly powerful China has posed a threat to American global primacy, despite US wealth and power.
Dialogue was labeled a failure by the Trump administration. Using Cold War language, Pompeo urged the Chinese to overthrow the CPC. The administration of President Joe Biden has highlighted democratic standards and re-engaged allies in order to inflict costs on China when it violates US values and interests. Biden's first multilateral meeting was the Quad summit, an "essential aspect" of the Indo-Pacific "architecture." His first abroad trip was to Europe, where he urged friends to reject China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and resist China's non-market policies and human rights violations by boosting infrastructure projects.
The Chinese government has slammed the United States for its Cold War-style, zero-sum mentality. As soon as President Biden was inaugurated, Chinese President Xi Jinping warned that 'creating tiny circles or initiating a new Cold War will only divide and confront the world." The United States and China have engaged in a cold war-style exchange of blows in nearly every area of international relations. President Xi expressed his displeasure with Western democracies and his admiration for China's modernization process under his rule. Using strict confinement measures to control COVID-19 has proven to be a paradigm for the rest of the world.
Beijing has no ideological soul mates, fervent followers, or sycophants abroad. Beijing's attraction is driven by economic and political performance, not ideas. Unlike the Soviet Union and United States, China has not established itself as a spearhead for the development of authoritarianism or the downfall of democracy. Since China's economy is interconnected with the global economy, including the US and other market economies, Beijing has not forced other countries to reject US-style capitalism in favor of a command economic model. Beijing has more billionaires than New York City and is the world's second billionaire capital in 2021, after the US.
China's success has challenged Western belief that liberal democracy works best for every country at every level of development, and many American politicians have portrayed China as an existential threat to liberal democracy and pledged to form an alliance of democracies against autocracies around the world. That the world can be divided into distinct but not entirely ideological camps may be comfortable, but it fails to capture the topsy-turvy world reality and reinforces a Cold War mentality that sees strong ideological opposition as inevitable.
Most Americans see China as an enemy or a competitor, and more than half believe the United States should do anything to curtail its influence. China sees US hostility as an attempt to deprive China of its due place in the sun and to overthrow its government, a crucial national interest that Beijing would not compromise on. Since its confrontation with the United States has gotten worse, Beijing has created and bolstered partnerships with Russia and Iran.
In 1998, Zbigniew Brzezinski predicted the formation of an "antihegemonic coalition" based on shared grievances. China has not established an organization akin to the Warsaw Pact because it seeks to build relationships rather than alliances. For China, Russia is the most essential strategic ally because of its diplomatic and military influence. Moscow was the destination of President Xi's first official trip as president in 2013. Russia's annexation of Crimea and assistance for separatists in Ukraine in 2014 sparked Western sanctions, which prompted Russia to seek a geopolitical counterweight in China.
In 2017, amid rising tensions between Russia and NATO, China supported Russian military maneuvers aimed at frightening Europe and the pro-American Middle East. Rallying behind the US, Russia joined naval drills along the coast of the South China Sea in 2016 and Pacific air patrols in 2019. Vostok 2018 was Russia's greatest military exercise since the breakup of the Soviet Union. China was invited to participate. For the first time, Beijing took part in Moscow's war simulations, a sign of growing confidence between the two countries.
The cooperation between China and Russia was made possible in part due to the United States' decision to scale back its own power ambitions. Their strategic partnership has progressed thanks to their shared empathy and understanding at the highest political levels. Because of his many trips there, the Chinese President claims that Putin is his closest friend. The presidents of both countries were seen making blinis with caviar and drinking vodka by their respective official media. Wang Yi welcomed Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to China following the stormy Anchorage conference in 2021. According to reports in the Chinese media, a US-led coalition facing off against China and Russia would be terrible. The United States viewed China-Russia relations as a flimsy band of friends doomed by their divergent national interests and mutual distrust.
Moscow sees Central Asia as its backyard, where BRI's main stage is located. In Central Asia, Russia is concerned about China's incursions. Russia's military ties to India and Vietnam, both of whom have territorial disputes with China, are making China upset. A century ago, Russia invaded and occupied China's northeast. In honor of Vladivostok's 160th anniversary, the Russian embassy in Beijing has shared a video celebrating the event. In the absence of a formal alliance, Russia will not accept a supporting role and China will not let go of its past. Great nations rarely remain united for long. Their relationship is influenced by US policy.
China can't afford a US-Russian rapprochement that comes out of nowhere. China and Russia share more in mutual disappointments than in similar objectives. Skepticism about the Beijing–Moscow axis has given way to an American consensus that the alliance is built on real commonality and has a bright future. As a combined threat, Russia and China were listed as the top two concerns in the 2017 Worldwide Threat Assessment by the US intelligence community. As part of the 2017 US National Security Strategy, China and Russia were cited as the most significant threats. Both have been at odds with the government of President Joe Biden, and neither was included in the Interim National Security Guidance of March 2021. While US–China relations are at an all-time low, the Biden administration has imposed heavy sanctions on Russia for election tampering and other hostile activities.
It's becoming impossible for China and the United States, the world's two biggest producers of greenhouse gases, to continue as usual without cutting back on emissions. Despite their rhetoric, one has accused the other of not cooperating on shared goals. The United States and China, both nuclear-armed countries, have a common interest in limiting their competitiveness to avoid escalation and mutual destruction. As a result, they haven't developed a set of strategic rules of the road and suitable conflict resolution procedures at the outset of bipolarity.
It is quite doubtful that China and the United States will ever become a duopoly, but a large-scale disagreement and a race to the bottom would be extremely costly. Because of the precarious power dynamics, bipolarity has developed, necessitating cooperation between the two parties. Having countries compete fiercely while also working closely may appear to be a contradiction. Competing among the world's major powers is normal. In order for humanity to achieve progress on global issues, cooperation is a critical metric for statecraft.